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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (14630)	11/11/2000 5:26:15 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

If you are counting on HWP you are dreaming. It is beat down only trading at 1.6 times earnings. Along with the rest to of the biggies, HWP has come down to a reasonable valuation now. Greg, you got me all confused. Are you saying that HWP is at such a low PE that it won't drop much? Where did you get 1.6 times earnings? There could be confusion on the growth rates due to the Agilent spinoff. I think it is the cream of the crop in the low PE PC/server stocks; certainly a better deal than SUNW. My guess but only if they deliver the earnings, it is probably the best deal in the PC space. The gains they showed in the PC market according to recent reports along with being up there with SUNW; then we have their printer business. The competition in printers is getting hit while HWP is stealing a lot of market share (i think). Saw a new printer lauch in late October in stores. I bet there is going to a big revenue gain from this. I think HWP and CPW is why Dell had lowered earnings projections and not necessaraly weakening demand. I think HWP will be positive about the future. It is a much stronger company under Carla or is it Carly. Greg, I think if the uncertainty continues the Drugs have as much change of getting hit as the techs due to the valuation adjustments that have gone on in the Nasdaq. At the height of uncertainty (sometime next week), I plan to buy puts on the drugs and buy calls on the value stocks within the Nasdaq. The high PE Nasdaq stocks are still too risky---still have my limit to go no riskier than Cisco. At this point JDSU does not qualify as a buying opportunity although it seems better than GLW--given the huge difference in growth rates. The cheap semis like MU, LSI etc.. can' t fall much more in my opinion. The companies will start buying back their shares very aggressively during this period if the weakness persists. How can an MU (which trades around a PE of 5 to 10) not recover before the launch of the Pentium 4? Certainly, if the slowdown is very real and somewhat underestimated, nobody is going to be building more semiconductor capacity and if by chance demand even picks up slightly, MU makes a bundle of cash. It might be the best stock to buy going into HWP's earnings. The valuation is pricing in a bad bad market for PCs. Any improvement should really be a huge bonus for Micron. Then there is a trend to other types of businesses; consumer and communications. Early next year, we could spikes in DRAM prices. Of course AMAT might be very important for the semis in general.