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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7696)	11/11/2000 4:58:06 PM
From: Mark Johnson	Respond to of 30051

You act like this licensing idea is something new to Valence Technology......It's not smarty pants.....Had you ever paid attention or for that matter attended a shareholders meeting you would have understood the long- term thrust of the organization..... By the way thanks for ignoring my posts <VBG>....we would not have had this discussion today had you read my posts....<VBG> Thank you too Larry....

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7696)	11/11/2000 8:43:24 PM
From: Bosco	Respond to of 30051

<ot>Hi all - this is almost the end of the day, just want to let those of you who are veterans know, you are not forgotten despite the sound and the fury in Florida. Every time this yr, I remember my dear friend, whom I ve not been in contact for a long long time. He is a Vietnam vet, a tortured genius, a wittgensteinian scholar, a public defender! I hope he has found peace in the wilderness of Alaska. The same thought goes to you all veterans. Right or wrong, thank you! best, Bosco

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7696)	11/11/2000 9:18:37 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Larry, come to think of it, if indeed these rough calculations are correct and the breakeven does not start until they reach $88 MM per year, then we probably should not expect to see $1 per share earnings (sans royalties earnings) until they reach some $180 MM of annual sales. Even if sales double every quarter from here, that is at least a good five quarter away. The time horizon for that $1/share earnings should probably be delayed further by two to four quarters, since I have an "intrinsic" assumption of 50% gross margins. I think it is unlikely that they will get their overall yield to 80% in that time frame. If we use a more conservative assumption of 30% gross margins, then the quarterly break even point is $37 MM or close to $150 MM per year for break even. And using your number of 46 MM shares, to have $1/share in earnings (assuming sales beyond break even have a higher margin of let say 50%)will require annual sales rate of close to $242 MM (no taxes assumed since for the next few years they must have ample carry forward losses). If you assume 30% gross margin for the total production, $1/share earnings does not come in until above $300 MM in annual sales. I think these numbers could be used as a framework of potential valuation as they advance toward these sales targets. By the way, they cite 37.8 MM shares fully diluted to which I have added the new 3 MM, how do you get to yor number? Zeev