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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (131)	11/11/2000 7:19:53 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95888

The SIA site has information on world wide semiconductor shipments since 1990. In addition, a meeting of SIA members was held on 11/1, to determine forecasts for shipments through 2003. A report on their estimates are given in: www.semichips.org/news/archives/pr11012000_69.htm Combining the information from the 2 sources gives the following table showing annual past performance and present expected shipments through 2003. The dollar numbers are in Billions. Note the drop-off in shipments during 1996 and 1998. This corresponds to the cyclical lows in the semi-equip industry. The numbers going forward from 2000 through 2003 show very robust growth. It is different this time. Semiconductor shipments are going up in 2000, but the semi-equips are taking it in the shins. Also, 2001 through 2003 have high growth rates as well. Semiconductor Worldwide WW Ship Shipments Percent YEAR (B) Change 1990 50.5 1991 54.6 8.1 1992 59.9 9.7 1993 77.3 29.0 1994 101.9 31.8 1995 144.4 41.7 1996 132.0 -8.6 1997 137.2 3.9 1998 125.6 -8.5 1999 149.4 18.9 2000 205.0(E) 37.2 2001 249.0(E) 21.5 2002 274.0(E) 10.0 2003 319.0(E) 16.4