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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: el paradisio who wrote (62261)	11/12/2000 11:54:22 AM
From: Shtirlitz	Respond to of 99985

How about this: Speculation that Fed will come in to the rescue. Economy has obviously slowed down to the levels even below what Fed was targeting. It would make sense to speculate that the Fed might start easing. To soften the fall in the markets and prevent panic. (Wouldn't that be more like soft landing, then allowing the markets to crash here, devastate consumer confidence, scare off domestic and foreign investors, and let the economy to die ? ) Even if the rates won't be cut on this oncoming meeting due to uncertainty with elections. (Fed will try to stay away from politics), the market may still speculate, that rates will be cut on the next meeting. All this political "turmoil" is BS. Sooner or later it will be resolved and US will have a president. Markets move based on economic reasons. Those who are selling for political reasons will regret big time, when the situation will be resolved after the overseas ballots come in (sometime after Nov 17) and the market starts a "releif rally" Indexes do not reflect the level of carnage that happened in the market over the past 8 month. In any case I'm a buyer at these levels.

To: el paradisio who wrote (62261)	11/12/2000 11:57:15 AM
From: Shtirlitz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

"I can't imagine a piece of a good news that will support the market right now." How about this: Speculation that Fed will come in to the rescue. Economy has obviously slowed down to the levels even below what Fed was targeting. It would make sense to speculate that the Fed might start easing. To soften the fall in the markets and prevent panic. (Wouldn't that be more like soft landing, then allowing the markets to crash here, devastate consumer confidence, scare off domestic and foreign investors, and let the economy to die ? ) Even if the rates won't be cut on this oncoming meeting due to uncertainty with elections. (Fed will try to stay away from politics), the market may still speculate, that rates will be cut on the next meeting. All this political "turmoil" is BS. Sooner or later it will be resolved and US will have a president. Markets move based on economic reasons. Those who are selling for political reasons will regret big time, when the situation will be resolved after the overseas ballots come in (sometime after Nov 17) and the market starts a "releif rally" Indexes do not reflect the level of carnage that happened in the market over the past 8 month. In any case I'm a buyer at these levels.

To: el paradisio who wrote (62261)	11/12/2000 12:32:59 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

How the Nasdaq COULD bounce: Look at Oct 25-6 and 12-13, May 10-11 and 23-4, April 14-17 (also a Friday and Monday with a weekend of building terror in between) and 3-4... You could go back further, of course, say to August and October 1998, Jan 9-12 '98 (yet another weekend), or Oct 27-8 '97. Such moves are highly tradable when they arise, but require a strong stomach and (look at August and October '98 for warnings) are probably best left alone unless they set up just right. Oct 12-13 and Apr 14-17 were perfect models: A few well-selected trades on just those days could have made for a nice year's work. Thursday also offered a tradable but very dangerous version of the same pattern in many individual stocks. Reasons to stay in after any quick pop need to be carefully considered. I hasten to add that none of this is meant to imply anything about the actual health or longer-term technical condition of the major indices and their components. Still, if a bounce comes prior to substantial further slippage, technical analysts and their fellow travelers may quickly rush in to pronounce the latest "re-test" successful - amidst massive, instantaneous revision of prevailing sentiment regarding proper discounting of political (non-)events, prospective Fed action, earnings reports and guidances, and so on. Unfortunately for longs, there's not much of a safety margin here, but stranger things have happened - seemingly just about every other week, come to think of it.