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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis V. who wrote (22256)	11/12/2000 11:07:20 AM
From: John Curtis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Dennis, Fred, et.al.: Dennis; your thoughts pretty much mirror my own with regard to N.I. and the push-out of some of the equipment thought to be well on its way by this point. I've got to think this throws a wrench into CIBC's numbers projection which must have been based, as you said, on "bean" production ramp-up, etc.. Yet at the same time there's now a great unknown swirling around the Telecordia deal. An unknown of potentially great significance. It's an unqualified situation, given VLNC doesn't yet know (or isn't saying) what this agreement signifies to their bottom line. A parenthetical aside at this point. One of my basic curiosities with this Telecordia gambit is what is the life-span on those patents. From what I can see a fair percentage of them originate from the mid-90's, with one or two going back as far at the late '80's (see Telecordia's lithium poly patent subsection at their web-site). So it begs the question of how much of the "clock" is left on them? Anyway, although CIBC came out after the Telecordia announcement reiterating their buy recommendation you've got to think somebody in their organization is now busy trying to get a handle (maybe in closed doors with VLNC management?) on the situation. Regarding N.I.....well....I'll admit to disappointment to yet another push-out. It could very well be Lev segmented the news releases so Telecordia news blunted the second release. If so it appears to have been a successful tactic. But N.I. being pushed out, combined with a new management focus and subsidiary split, beg the question about the relative importance of N.I., vis-a-vie IDB agreements, etc. VLNC's strategy looks to have become a three-part one, kind'a in-line with his description of the new divisions. Henderson to test theory and R&D. N.I. then to provide proof of manufacturing concept along with supporting those global "special manufacture" cases Lev mentioned that VLNC would be focusing on. Read here Alliant, NASA, U.S. Navy, and whoever else comes along having those certain, special needs. This could be enough for IDB when you consider that if VLNC is getting in bed early with OEM's then new products from the OEM's, with VLNC inside, will probably initially be limited and high end in nature, a situation tailor made for N.I. And then finally, after proof of manufacturing concept, the mass production of standardized "beans" to be handled, and managed, as a franchisee/licensee arrangement. Truly, this does appear to be a variation on the QCOM theme. So, imho, this isn't a bad model. BUT, we need numbers and announcements of current licensees agreeing to partnering with VLNC. Once again it all comes down to time. Meanwhile, I expect the market to continue to digest this weeks news; with the consequence being that Fred's probably bought back in at the right time. I don't expect VLNC to move upwards any time soon, barring any more news--HEY, speaking of which according to the prior Quantum news release a more specific release on this agreement is to occur this month, so maybe.... Be that as it may, I also don't expect much more of a downside out of VLNC than it's recent lows. Bottom line? VLNC remains range bound. Oh....and Fred....WELCOME BACK!! Regards! John~