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Technology Stocks : CSCO - where's the bottom?!?!? Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eski who wrote (36)	11/12/2000 5:33:31 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 253

it's interesting that the October lows have only been broken in Nov or Dec of the same year once. 1929. I think if the Nasdaq falls apart 2500 will be hit this year and the fall out effect of this move will lead us to 1500 next year. The Dow has a real chance of breaking 9000 this year and it could begin it's slide to a 50% retracement over the next two years. Declining margins and falling stock prices will cause earnings to fall. Massive gains from investments that currently make up 50% of earnings, for some companies, will disappear in the coming years and the IBM's and GE's of the world will be cut in half for starters. I expect a gap down below 3000 on monday...I don't see where a rally could come from to blow us back over. Real margin selling should begin this week. If CSCO breaks back down below $45 and INTC warns as Fleck expects, I think the so called cnbc rock bottom of 2800 should be broken with in weeks if not days. From there I expect more trouble in the bond world to lead to slower tech spending and asset liquidations. This AT&T and BTY asset sale is a major bearish sign of things to come. Not only will this put further pressure on equity markets but it's sure to lead general inability for companies to realize gains from investments in the future. I watched that program on the Japan Bubble again today and made some notes. I'm a little busy so I will be typing out my notes later in the week. One thing of note is that companies there were allowed to count as earnings the market to market gains made in real estate they owned. Accounting rules actually allowed companies to take the increases in market value of the land their factories were on and call it earnings?!?!? The land values got so out of control then that the Island of Japan was valued at 7 times that of the entire USA. Just goes to show you what a mania can do to peoples reasoning ability. The denial is a killer. Bambs