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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Palau who wrote (71609)	11/12/2000 5:05:05 PM
From: SecularBull	Respond to of 769667

I think Pat Buchanan should've had negative numbers in Palm Beach County (that would be consistent with the corruption going on in the hand count). LoF

To: Mr. Palau who wrote (71609)	11/12/2000 7:55:12 PM
From: greenspirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769667

Ok, this is going to be a bit long, but please bear with me. Assumption 1: 70% of registered Democrats voted. Assumption 2: 70% of registered Independents voted. Assumption 3: 70% of registered Republicans voted. Gore received 268,945 votes. Bush received 152,846 votes. Gore would need to have received 100% of the Democratic vote and 66% of ALL the Independent vote. Not entirely implausible, but in order to by that, we need to completely toss out the 10,495 votes cast for other parties, and assume they all came from Republicans. Otherwise the number jumps to 75%. On the other hand, here's a theory... There were 461,988 total ballots cast in PBC on Nov. 7th, but only 432,286 votes cast for President. Over 461,000 voters punched holes in their ballots for Senator, state offices, county offices, judiciary, and soil conservation - but only 432,286 voted for President? Where are the 29,702 missing Presidential votes? In order for us to believe everything is on the up-and-up, we would have to believe that 29,702 voters either didn't vote for President, screwed up the hole punching for President and didn't anywhere else. Or shifted parties and voted Democratic. Not impossible, but highly implausible. How about this instead.. One cannot just stuff new Gore ballots in, because the cross-check will catch it. But if you introduce a Gore ballot fraudulently, and spoil a Bush ballot. You get +1 ballot, +1 spoiled, and that looks exactly like the case of a spoiled ballot followed by a request for a new one to vote again. The total spoiled ballots - 19,000 in PB, minus the expected "noise" errors 2000, gives 17,000 more double-punches than expected normally. And 17,000 times 2 (+1 Gore, -1 Bush each) gives you 34,000 votes. Almost exactly the swing in votes. Now, let's plug this theory into the above numbers on registrations and turnouts. If you assume the independents voted for independents, and also account for some ballots with no vote for President. Then assign the remaining independents 80-20 to Dems rather than Republicans, you get an "adjusted" vote base of 361k Dem, 248k Rep. That is about 60-40 by the way. Then, take the actual votes recorded, and take back the hypothetical 17k Gore votes, and add in a hypothetical 17k Bush votes. Then you get 252/361 turnout for the adjusted Dems = 70%, vs. 170/248 = 69% adjusted Reps. Almost exactly the same. It's far more logical to assume the vote turnout was about equal then what the current numbers would have us believe. Source... pbcelections.org