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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: im a survivor who wrote (15074)	11/12/2000 5:17:18 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

KG Actually I don't think it'll drop more than 500 points tomorrow, maybe a bit more inter-day but thats it, 500 maximum. I don't think we go to 1,500 this week either. You have to have one sort of up day otherwise it spoils the shorts golf day which is usually Tuesday for some reason. My guess is the worst we get is about 1,800 this week, then a gradual and gentle decline to 1,000. Mr Greenspan has it seems to me been determined not to ease up till he has broken the back of the US economy and that is now well under way. So some people are happy I guess. Best regards, L

To: im a survivor who wrote (15074)	11/12/2000 5:30:41 PM
From: RocketMan	Respond to of 65232

maybe the naz goes down to 1500 and doesnt recover for ten years...... My charts show the Naz well below its 200 dma, at trend-breaking levels comparable to the 87 crash, the 90-91 recession, and the 98 Asian crisis. However, the fed-induced bubble in 99 and early 00 ran up the 200 dma, so the bad news is, if we re-establish the 10-year trend, the naz could get down to 2200 or so and still be in a bear correction phase of a 10-year bull market. The good news is, the naz has come back from those lows with a vengeance in each of the previous cases, and within a year it had recovered most of its losses or was at new highs. I just can't see a return to the long bears of the 70's, because the factors that were at work then are not now at work -- high inflation, cold/guerilla war economy, oil embargo, etc. This time, who knows what will happen, but there are an awful lot of bad news out there already. The election problems can not get much worse before they get better. The Fed will soon have to lower rates or risk a worldwide deflation and financial crisis. The economy is still humming, in spite of the dot-com crashes making the news every day. Inflation is low, employment is high, we are at peace, and technology is still improving productivity and changing the way we live and work. We have been in a bear market now for 7-8 months. The bear is aging. It may die tomorrow, or next month, or next year, but it will die. Even if the naz gets to 2200, the underlying trends will still be in place. However, I would urge anyone who could not weather another 700-800 point loss before recovery -- if it should happen -- to re-evaluate their positions.