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To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (117454)	11/14/2000 11:20:09 AM
From: fyodor_	Respond to of 186894

<Tench: By the way, whatever happened to the constant polls we had to endure throughout the campaign? Didn't they consistently show like a 2% lead for Bush in the popular vote, but a likely win for Gore in the electoral college?> I believe this is do to the construction of the poll numbers. Gallup et. al. poll different blocks of voters and then try to guesstimate the voter turnout of each block. The problem is that close results almost always affect voter turnout differently from block to block. Additionally, last minute efforts are often made to increase turnout of polarized blocks. E.g. NRA, NAACP, various unions etc. These efforts are, of course, much more vigorous when the predicted result is close. What this means, in effect, is that the closer an election is, the greater the margin of error. -fyo