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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Malloy who wrote (43385)	11/12/2000 11:09:26 PM
From: chic_hearne	Respond to of 77400

A drop of 5.5 standard deviations is a giant drop statistically. My personal opinion is that a return to the correlation is more likely than a 5.5-standard deviation drop. John, I recently read somewhere a bullish case long term for the Naz at 2100 based off of long term TA. Frankly, this bubble got so inflated so fast that many of these measures such as standard deviations aren't very useful anymore. Since no other market has gone over 4 standard deviations, who really knows the fallout of the Naz going to 5.5 standard deviations? chic

To: John Malloy who wrote (43385)	11/12/2000 11:18:11 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Don't back off, John. It isn't your opinion that it is more likely that the Naz will regress to the mean rather than drop 5.5 std devs. Rather, it is a statistical fact that regression the mean is more likely. Those hoping for anything outside 2 std devs are betting against the odds plain and simple.