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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (14182)	11/12/2000 11:40:13 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

David, My feeling is that the P/E has shrunk quite a bit, forecasting some sort of recession. Just look at the semiconductors; many are trading with PE of 10 (some forward and some trailing) even while they are confirming their guidance going forward. That is one sector that seems to have priced in a recession, while at the same time we are getting such a transformation in consumer electronics, communications, and with the Pentium 4--PCs as well. Everything these days needs chips. If those companies slow down their expansion plans, we could have rising prices again. If the PC sector picks up just a bit, DRAM pricing could take off due to capital spending reductions based upon forecasts. That is why i am very bullish on that sector at current valuations. Fiber is a little tricky in that it is not cyclical yet. Maybe high PEs can be supported if there is only a few players that can manufacture the components--barriers to entry argument. With the weak equity markets, the barriers will become larger! I am reluctant to take more chances with JDSU until I see some of the value sectors (tech) move up and that includes some PC stocks like Hewlett Packard. I think they will surprise investors with earnings. I think they are a re-born powerhouse with a reasonable valuation. They may become the company that takes away the "dot" in Sun's "dot.com" plans. HWP's earnings could be very important and maybe just as important will be AMAT. I feel better about HWP than AMAT but any surprise out of either will get the bargain hunters into tech even with the political problems. Of course I think the semis are a steal at current prices, given current economic conditions. regards. BTW--I still think the selloff is only due to the election. Dell's earnings would have been brushed aside by the market as they had already warned in the past and the market expected some of the bad news.