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To: Lu_Xun who wrote (19230)	11/13/2000 2:10:19 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Respond to of 29987

OT--The election Why is it so implausible that Mr. Buchanan may have gotten 3,500 or so votes (out of approximately 450,000 cast in Palm Beach County) just because the County is preponderantly Democratic? A scatter graph plotting number of registered Reform party members against votes cast for Buchanan, by county, shows a very high correlation, except for one real outlier--Palm Beach County. The chance that the Palm Beach Buchanan votes were "normal" (i.e., a normal outlier from random chance) was on the order of one in a trillion, statistically speaking. That is a purely statistics-driven statement, by the way. I offer no opinion whether something should be done about the anomaly, whether it was caused by the dreaded butterfly ballot, or whether something else might have been going on--such as an unusually active campaign leader for Buchanan in the county (although Pat himself has stated that nothing like that occurred).

To: Lu_Xun who wrote (19230)	11/13/2000 2:47:04 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

OT -- Lu_Xun, the Reform Party rolls in Palm Beach mean nothing. Buchanan does not represent the old Reform party, and the vast majority of old Reform Party members voted for Bush or Gore. Although PB has large numbers of such Reform Party members, other counties, such as Broward, just to south of us have just as many, yet Buchanan got just a few hundred votes in those counties. So this argument is completely bogus. Here is a statistical study of the problem: dailynews.yahoo.com Kyros