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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: freeus who wrote (15486)	11/14/2000 12:04:58 AM
From: limtex	Respond to of 65232

freeus - IMHO the election is irrelevant. Statements that "the markets hate uncertainty" are total crap, markets exits ONLY on uncertainty. If you don't believe that try thinking about a market where everything was certain. What markets hate is losing money and right now they are gradually waking up to the fact that the economy is 'slowing down'. Actually IMHO the economy is heading right into a brick wall. Growth of 1%or 2% will knock PEs back to single digits or at best 15 - 20 for most companies. Market s don't want to lose money thats it plain and simple. That today IMHO means that fund managers aren't going to do a lot of buying until two thing happen:- 1. Interest rates start coming down hard and fast. 2. Oil prices go back to bearing some relationship to their economic value. Until those tow things happen you can expect to see more volatility. You know what volatility meands, it means markets gradually and inexorably declining. It means ever more of that sickening feeling of waking up to the NAZ futures being dowen 40, 50 ,60 or 90 points, you know that feeling, we all know it but for nine months we have ignored the obvious. I think you can hide in a few stocks. I think you can hide in QCOM and SNDK because they both have the same strangle hold on their segments as Mr Greenspan does on the economy, ie a total strangle hold. As for anything else I just don't have a feel. If there is a company that has an IPR grip on a massively growing segment then OK because the market can have whatever concerns they like and journalists and analysts can slag them off as much as they like BUT IPR rules OK. One thing is clear and that is, except for a few special situations (MSFT, MO etc) forget about the outcome of the elxction influencing the markets direction. Best regards, L