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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SJS who wrote (14224)	11/13/2000 11:04:41 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Steve, "The economy is slowing! We're not done with this yet." Yep. We're not done by a very long shot. The Naz led on the way into the market top and it is leading the way down. The djia and s&p500 will follow as each of the next four quarters show more slowing. Here's how I figure it going forward: on the assumption we don't have a recession, the remaining Fed hikes will take five (or four) quarters to work through the system. Somewhere--say three or four quarters from now--Greenspan will determine there is enough of a slowdown. Then, he'll first open up the money supply--M2--and that will tell us the tide has changed. Then, he'll anounce an interest rate cut etc... By this time, however, there will be a lot of blood on the trading floors and keyboards and the sentiment will be very bad. The present condition, is way more positive than it was in 1998. I think the comparison is illustrative: that was a bull market correction and such are characterised by extreme worry on the way up. The market topping process, however, changes that and Ms. Mania gets a malign clench on Mr. Market's brain. On the way down, he gets increasingly nervous but does not freak out. Mr. Market does not get to the extreme worry--panic--stage until the very last. That's when he sells. "For everything there is a season." A time to buy and a time to sell. Ciao, David Todtman