If Bush loses, brother Jeb may be responsible
By Peter Wallsten
Knight Ridder Newspapers
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - Could Florida Gov. Jeb Bush have cost his own brother the presidency?
After all the vote counting and court quarrels are complete, if Florida falls to Al Gore, the vice president's margin of victory could be attributed to an unusually massive turnout from an energized black electorate.
Blacks turned out big here for one reason above all others: Jeb Bush's 1999 reform of affirmative action, which rolled back race preferences in state hiring, contracts and college admissions, and sparked furious protests from African Americans.
"The governor put us on a collision course," said state Sen. Kendrick Meek, a black legislator from Miami who gained national prominence when he conducted a sit-in in the governor's office to protest the so-called "One Florida" initiative.
Blacks made up 16 percent of Florida's voter turnout Tuesday, according to exit polls from the Voter News Service, though they are just 12 percent of the state's population. An estimated 93 percent voted for Gore, and just 7 percent for Bush.
"If you had to pick the one factor that really brought Gore to the table it was an extraordinarily high turnout in the black community," said Susan MacManus, a politics professor at the University of South Florida who specializes in poll data.
It is remarkable enough that the next president may be decided by recounts in a few counties in a single state, but when that state's governor is one candidate's brother, their sibling relationship will face microscopic scrutiny as sharp as that given the recount itself.
Jeb Bush, a popular governor, had long been counted on to deliver Florida's 25 electoral votes to his big brother, George W.
But suddenly, with the world watching Florida - indeed, with the major TV networks broadcasting live at all hours from just outside his ground-floor office in Tallahassee - the Florida governor is mute.
He has recused himself from the process of certifying election results, and his aides know that anything he says or does runs the risk of political damage to his brother or himself.
The Bush brothers embarked on separate paths after growing up in their father's presidential shadow - Jeb married a Mexican woman and settled in Florida, while George W. stayed in Texas - but their political ambitions are now permanently paired. George W.'s hopes for the presidency hinge on winning his little brother's state, and Jeb's hope for a second term as governor and perhaps a later national run of his own will be influenced strongly by his big brother's success or failure.
Jeb Bush, whose smooth voice and polished presence contrasts with his brother's more rough-hewn, aw-shucks manner, once was considered the more natural politician. But when he lost to Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles in 1994 and his brother upset Gov. Ann Richards in Texas that same year, presidential expectations shifted to Austin.
In 1998, Jeb Bush borrowed a few pages from his brother's Texas playbook and reintroduced himself to Florida as a compassionate conservative.
Unlike any Florida Republican before him, Jeb Bush campaigned in black and Jewish communities. He won endorsements from high-profile African-American leaders, and even the state's biggest Jewish newspaper. He won 14 percent of the black vote in 1998, a stark increase from his 6 percent tally four years earlier.
Bush pledged that his administration would reflect the diversity of Florida and appointed several high-profile minorities to top posts, even playing an unusual role as governor-elect in appointing the Florida Supreme Court's first black female justice.
But shortly after becoming governor, Jeb Bush received a visit from California businessman Ward Connerly, the black conservative who championed the 1996 initiative to ban affirmative action in his home state. Connerly said he wanted to push for a constitutional ban on racial preferences in Florida.
Bush was sympathetic to Connerly's goals, but publicly chastised his efforts as "divisive" and asked him to steer clear of the Sunshine State. Then, as Connerly was seeking court approval to put his proposition on the ballot in 2000, Bush introduced his "One Florida" plan to reform affirmative action.
Bush said his plan was a sincere effort to fix a broken system, but it also served as a preemptive strike against Connerly's efforts.
Black leaders marched on the state capital in protest and staged a sit-in. Bush demanded that his aides "kick their asses out," sparking glee among Democrats, foreseeing that Bush's efforts would backfire and his brother would face turbulence in Florida.
"If you ask, did One Florida energize and motivate the black electorate, that answer is emphatically yes," said the Rev. R.B. Holmes of Tallahassee, one of Jeb Bush's most high-profile African-American backers in 1998. "Perhaps if George W. had gotten the black votes that Jeb had gotten two years ago, he would be the president without a recount."
Supporters of Jeb Bush say One Florida was not decisive.
"The black vote was 90 percent for Gore, like it always typically is for a Democratic presidential nominee," said Florida's outgoing Republican state House speaker, John Thrasher, a close Bush campaign adviser. As for Gore keeping the race close in his state, Thrasher said: "I think (running mate Joseph) Lieberman had more to do with it." Lieberman, an orthodox Jew, drew enthusiastic support from Jewish retirees in Florida.
Jeb Bush's aides defend his One Florida affirmative action reforms as more effective than traditional affirmative action programs.
One Florida gives the governor greater power to ensure that minority firms get fair treatment in state contracting and also guarantees university admission to the top 20 percent of every high school graduating class.
The number of state contracts with minority firms has risen by about 90 percent, and minority enrollment at the state's universities is up as well, according to statistics from the governor's office. Critics dispute those statistics.
The backlash against One Florida "came from those who were already politically opposed to the governor, and those who did not take the time to tune out the demagoguery of a few to understand the true goals of One Florida," said Katie Baur, his communications director. "By the time Gov. Bush decides when and if to run for reelection in this state people will be able to see for themselves a proven track record of success for diversity and minority opportunity."
Affirmative action was one of several issues that mobilized black Floridians to vote; others included racial profiling, the death penalty, and education. The NAACP and the Democratic Party targeted African-American households with brochures and recorded phone calls from Gore and President Clinton.
Amid the post-election chaos in Florida, the NAACP has sent an army of lawyers into the state to investigate possible violations of the federal Voting Rights Act. The NAACP may ask the U.S. Justice Department to open an inquiry.
But while the final votes are fought over in Florida, the Bush family is caught in a moment of trial. But friends say the two brothers have never been tighter.
"They love each other very much," said Thrasher, the state House speaker. "I think George W. feels that Jeb did the very best he could do, and things are as good as they've ever been between the two of them."
Even so, as George W. Bush joked recently, if Gore wins Florida, the Bush family may face a chilly Thanksgiving. |
