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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (78878)	11/13/2000 6:38:08 PM
From: excardog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

government weekly natural gas commentary: (note some of the west coast pricing was in the $6's) Subj: Natural Gas Weekly Market Update Date: 11/13/00 2:23:01 PM Pacific Standard Time From: PATRICIA.WELLS@eia.doe.gov (Wells, Patricia) Sender: bounce-wngm-117553@tonto.eia.doe.gov Reply-to: wmaster@eia.doe.gov To: wngm@tonto.eia.doe.gov (Weekly Natural Gas Market Update) xxxxxx xxxxxx xx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx x x xxx U.S. Department of Energy xx xxxx xx xxxxxx x Energy Information Administration x xx xx xx xx xx To unsubscribe see the message xxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xx xx xxxxxxxxxxxxx footnote xxxxxxxxxxxxxx EIA, the Nation's clearinghouse for energy statistics. xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (NOTE: To best view this document, your email software should be set to view the item in an 80 character format, using a "non-proportional" font, e.g. courier) To view the Weekly Market Update with graphs, go to eia.doe.gov. On November 7, the near-month futures price for natural gas at the Henry Hub ended the trading day at $5.081 per MMBtu, breaking the $5 mark for the fist time since October 23. The spot natural gas price at the Henry Hub was also higher, ending the week at $5.25 per MMBtu for a $0.62 gain from the previous week. A number of events coalesced to force prices higher. First, the warm temperatures that prevailed the first week of the heating season ended abruptly Tuesday, November 7 as forecasts called for further below normal temperatures throughout much of the country. Much of the country=s mid section from Texas westward has had up to 70 percent less heating degree days in the first week of the heating season. The National Weather Service (NWS), though, is calling for below normal temperatures over most of the country from November 15 through the 19. Second, the reported stock addition for the week ending November 3, while over twice the average, fell short of industry=s optimistic expectations. Third, slight increases in crude oil prices may have been a contributing factor as crude oil markets reacted to export problems in Nigeria and a move by Iraq to halt exports through Turkey for 24 hours. By the end of the week, the West Texas Intermediate marker crude was up $1.30 compared to the previous Friday and ended at $34.05 per barrel ($5.87 per MMBtu). Storage: The American Gas Association (AGA) estimated net injections of 36 Bcf for the week ended Friday, November 3, bringing EIA's estimate of total inventories as of this date to 2,758 Bcf, 7.0 percent less than the 5-year average. The injection estimate is the largest for this particular week in the year for the 7 years that AGA has been publishing weekly estimates, and is over two and one-half times the average (12.3 Bcf) for that period. Consequently (with the exception of the West Region, which experienced net withdrawals), inventories relative to the EIA-estimated 5-year (1995-99) average continued to improve. As of November 3, East Region working gas volumes, at an estimated 1,780 Bcf, are just 2.5 percent below the 5-year average. The strong 21 Bcf injections into Producing Region facilities raised its estimated level to 666 Bcf and improved its position by over 2 percentage points from the previous week to 13.2 percent below average. Spot Prices: With cooler temperatures pervading many parts of the country, weather-related demand started to expand, causing spot prices in nearly all locations to spike mid week then retreat on Friday. Chicago and New York citygate prices ended trading at $5.46 and $5.73 per MMBtu on Thursday. When prices softened on Friday, most markets moved down 10 to 30 cents. Actions to limit excessive draws in the Northwest and on the El Paso transmission system pushed spot prices in the West higher before Friday=s corrections took hold. Prices in Sumas, Washington and San Juan Basin, New Mexico went up about $1, reaching $6.58 and $5.50. The PG&E and SOCAL sales to high volume customers were at least $1.24 more than the previous week, reaching $6.53 and $6.89 on Thursday. Futures Prices: The December NYMEX futures contract settlement price has moved up 8 out of 9 days since Monday (10/30), increasing by $0.971per MMBtu since then. . After declining briefly on Monday, the near-month turned in two successive increases of about 25 cents before the price increase decelerated to a penny at week=s end. The January, February, and March contracts saw at least a $0.310 advance over the course of the week to settle at $5.492, $5.212, and $4.912 respectively, on Friday. Summary: Traders reacted strongly this week to cooler weather and a stock position that, while adequate in the East consuming region, is 7.0 percent below the national 5-year average for this time of year. The following supplement provides an outlook of the domestic natural gas transmission capability during the 2000-01 heating season.