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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rashomon who wrote (7774)	11/13/2000 7:37:53 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

Rashomon, this time around, I think I turned bearish on the sector quite "in time". In February I was still bullish, but by late march I warned both on the CYMI and the semi equip thread of an impending collapse. Then I even went so far as to say that we will not see new highs in the sector for a year at least, if AMAT breaches the $80 support area, it worked like a chrm, AMAT is now half that much. I think that the real question is now when we see the bottom of the cycle (yes, I know, no one has yet declared the cycle over, but they will do that after the bottom is reached and keep calling each succeeding rally a bear trap, they have done it before). I have a simple test, look at the BTB of the semi -equip, if you see it bottoming, but above 1.00 Expect a strong rally, but not yet the end of the down cycle, if you see bottoming under 1.00 (anywhere from .70 to .85), it is time to jump in with both feet. Right now, I am doing "raids" only in that sector. By the way, the scarriest part of the down cycle for the semi equip is the last quarter in the cycle, just during that period, when everyone finally recognizes that we have a down swing in semi equip, stock can drop an additional 50%. I remember in the last cycle being laughed at on the CYMI thread for suggesting whe the stock was still in the $25 to $30 area that a "fair" bear market bottom for CYMI would be around $14 or so. Well, it did wander around there, but in the last phase of that cycle it dropped sharply first to the 411 and then all the way to th $6 in few weeks. Take that into account if you play this space, but remember, no two cycles are exactly the same, and I do not think this one will bring CYMI much below the $14 area (ya, I heard that before <VBG>). Zeev

To: Rashomon who wrote (7774)	11/13/2000 9:46:19 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 30051

Rash: Don't forget its balance sheet. I don't buy the $2.2 a share in 2002 but when you consider it should make $1.6+ over the current 4 qtrs., has $5/share in current assets (exclude AR and AP since they are a wash) over liabilities (all liabilities) so your "paying" $8 for a company earning $1.6 with a 40%ish growth rate. We'll it looks like $12 is proving to be pretty good support. From a risk reward its a great entry point BUT the sector is unluvvvvvvvved at the momment and unfortunately it can become more unluved. Tim