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To: donald sew who wrote (35512)	11/14/2000 12:14:44 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Donald, I enjoy your posts, and know you work primarily/only with your system, but it seems to me there are a number of potential "flash points" here for further upside in the Naz over the next few trading sessions: (1) 10:30 AM Tuesday ruling from circuit Court judge re: manual recount. If the judge rules in favor of the State of Florida, likelihood of Bush victory increases, perhaps significantly. Odds are good that he/she will rule in favor of the Republicans. Will shorts "do their thing" ahead of this news? I wouldn't think so...and I do think the market would rally if deadline upheld... (2) 5:00 PM- Tuesday. Final certification of ballots completed. Again, assuming 10:30 AM ruling is in favor for the Bush camp, I would assume that short sellers would be very careful NOT to short going into Tuesday close....If manual recounts due in by Tuesday, 5:00 PM, it is highly possible that Bush will still retain a small lead, or Gore will acquire a small lead after certification results are announced on Tuesday night. Either way, Bush will still be favored to win the election, for the overseas/military vote is assumed to go for him.....As it becomes clearer that Bush may wins, the market will likely rally or at least stay flat... (3) Fed meeting, Wednesday afternoon. It is assumed that the Fed will not change their bias. But what if they go neutral? I think that could further boost or ignite any rally... (4) Next weekend: Let's suppose that Bush is declared the victor over the weekend (and, potentially, Democrats decide not to pursue further lawsuits).....election over......It would seem unlikely that short sellers would keep their plays on over the next weekend (if scenarios 1 and 2 are in effect)...and that shorts would be real careful during Friday...as news of the absentee/overseas ballot vote counts in different counties likely leek out... Add to this mix a lot of cash on the sideline (real lack of buying over the last week), your comments about outstanding puts/max pain (and expiration weeks often ending flat or up)...and the possibility that some good news may come out of Comdex and/or the potential for positive gvt. data for the bull case... Finally, we are still pretty oversold, and shorts have made A LOT of money over the past many sessions.....I would think that they (short sellers) would get much more cautious over the few trading sessions....It likely won't be as easy money (as this past week)...If nothing else, I think short-sellers are going to have to be a lot more nimble here.....one bit of news or press conference could make a big difference in any trading day.... (As you can tell, I am definently in the camp that thinks the election is having an impact here) Of course, any of these scenarios MIGHT not play out...I just wanted to point out that the bears certainly have something to worry about too over the next many days....

To: donald sew who wrote (35512)	11/14/2000 2:22:50 AM
From: John Carson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Donald, Can even the biggest players move QQQ either way to inflict max pain? Need some high volume buying or selling of CSCO, INTC, MSFT to pull that off. Is it worth it? You can do it with individual stocks, but how do you do it with a composite of high volume stocks?

To: donald sew who wrote (35512)	11/14/2000 5:48:36 AM
From: tracor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Don, From what you printed arnt there 173000 more calls than puts or am I missing something? Thanks for continuing to share your thoughts with all of us. RZ

To: donald sew who wrote (35512)	11/14/2000 8:45:42 AM
From: timers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

where can you find that info and how current is it? btw...where is the "max pain" concept/index defined? thx.

To: donald sew who wrote (35512)	11/14/2000 4:33:28 PM
From: OX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

>>If anyone else could add onto this, please do. donald, not sure what you're looking for, but some possibly interesting tidbits... OI for QQQ is currently 10x over this time last year. however, the $value of underlying controlled is still less than half compared to the NDX options. (I didn't do a full comparison vs NDX options, just a rough guess; so anyone feel free to correct) perhaps you're asking if there's enough volume (or OI) in QQQ options to be able to move the NDX? if so, the answer is probably: yes.