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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dave turliku who wrote (8478)	11/13/2000 11:55:41 PM
From: OrionX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

dave, If you're so confident of your diagnosis on NT, I really hope you're shorting the crap out of Cisco. By your thinking and conclusions, Cisco is due for a 75% cut. I think there are more people than you can count that will disagree with your thinking. As you should know, you have your valuation method and so does everyone else. In time $60/sh will be seen as a bargain IMHO. Also, I don't how anyone should listen to you who thought WSTL was fairly valued at $30! So, you're free to like wstl and many others are free to like NT and a bargain at that.

To: dave turliku who wrote (8478)	11/14/2000 5:59:18 AM
From: Bob Fairchild	Respond to of 14638

stockhouse.com Momentum Picks: Best Buying Opportunity in Tech for the Next Three to Five Years is Here This should be one of the best buying opportunities of the next five years. Toronto, ONT, November 14 /SHfn/ -- Regular Momentum Picks readers know I have been expecting the NASDAQ to make new lows since May of this year. Now that it has done it, I am going to lay it on the line. The US markets are at the bottom of a high-strength (major) down wave that began in March with the tech frenzy. Now we are entering another high-strength up wave that will last until the first quarter of 2002. This should be one of the best buying opportunities of the next five years. No waffle with that syrup, please The last time we reached this level was in October 1998, after a four year run. This recent major cycle has taken two years to complete, and is the first true high-strength down wave since the accelerated bull phase began in late 1994. There are major turning point indications on the current intermediate-strength down wave, and strong turning point readings on this latest medium-strength down wave. The larger picture, as shown in the chart below, has the NASDAQ closing in on the 2850 target level. This down wave that began in March consisted of two intermediate-strength down waves, and one intermediate-strength up wave sandwiched in the middle. The TVAL has reached levels consistent with intermediate-strength bottoms, and the fact that the turning point indications are high suggests that this entire down wave will be reversed. The daily chart shows that the price has made significant new lows below the May lows. The TVAL however, a measure of internal momentum, has not. This suggests that the weakness in price is masking the rising internal sentiment. Because the prices have yet to reflect this increasing sentiment and momentum, I call this the "stealth bull" scenario. This pattern is found at every major bottom, including March of this year, and October, 1998. The bottom of this high-strength, or major, sell down wave is only beginning because we have the right conditions for all four time horizons, or strengths, to converge at once. For the first time, we are at a point where the high-strength down wave is now in its final stage before reversing. High-strength waves consist of several intermediate strength waves, which in turn consist of several medium-strength waves. The reversal of the NASDAQ on Friday confirmed the new medium-strength down wave. We now have the following wave structures: High-strength wave Down 7 months Intermediate-strength Wave Down 2 months 10 days Medium-strength wave Down 5 days Low (short term) wave Down 5 days Some may want to use 15 also - see below The highest price on the last up wave actually occurred 15 days ago, which would set the stage for Monday lows to be the bottom. The momentum peak in the TVAL occurred just five days ago. So that is the point from which I would measure the down wave. As a result, I am expecting a bounce followed by additional selling, because the medium -strength down wave has still not run its course. I am expecting at least one more re-test after the bounce. Even though Monday's low is only nine points away from the posted target, I am expecting at least one more re-test after the bounce. The short-term strength of this buy wave will provide some good clues as to whether we have hit the bottom. However, the most important piece of the pie will be how investors react to the next short-term sell wave. We should bounce in the short term, but expect a re-test, with lows down to the 2800 level on the next down wave. This bottom will be found at, or near, the end of November. One additional note is crucial. I recently suggested that the bottom in technology would only emerge with a divergence in semiconductors. Notice in chart below, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) did not break below the lows made on October 18, when the NASDAQ did. This suggests smart money is piling in, and a run to get in is going to occur. This is the divergence I have been looking for. It is only short term, but all major reversals start from very small reversals, and this one stands out prominently. Dave Poxon, formerly a proprietary stock trader, is now president of an institutional research firm that provides proprietary technical research services to institutions with in excess of $100 million of assets under administration. He writes exclusively on stocks for StockHouse.ca and StockHouse.com. David's proprietary indicators are components from an advanced proprietary technical theory he has developed through years of analysis and trading experience. The result is the Dynamic ALR Wave Theory™ or DAWT. This theory uses proprietary analytic methods to overcome the weaknesses of traditional technical analysis. The theory and its indicators have been designed to help predict turning points in securities more accurately and sooner than traditional technical tools. Click here for a description of his technical indicators.