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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Curtis who wrote (22315)	11/14/2000 1:11:53 PM
From: rli123	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 27311

To All: I heard from a reliable source that a company in England is the licensor of the lithium ion technology utilized by the major conventional (liquid) lithium ion battery manufacturers. My understanding is that this company rakes in something in the range of a BILLION dollars annually in licensing fees. I did a search and found an outfit by the name of AEA Technology plc in Harwell --- but while this company is definitely immersed in lithium battery technology, I'm not sure if it's the one my source was talking about. Anyway, I haven't yet been able to cross-check the story (billion dollars of licensing income), but if it's reasonably accurate, it helps us to get a little handle on the potential from license fees. One can make any number of assumptions about the market size, polymer battery market share, licensing fees, etc., but if the billion dollar per year figure is correct, it seems to me that VLNC could be looking at annual licensing fees amounting to a goodly fraction of the billion --- with the fraction increasing as the lithium polymer technology gains acceptance and market share. But beyond this, if you accept what Lev said in one of the CCs last week, lithium polymer technology can be competitive in highly competitive markets such as power hand tools (drills, etc.) and auto batteries. If this is indeed the case, the market size would be significantly larger than the existing lithium ion market, and thus the licensing fee income could conceivably exceed the billion dollars in fees realized by the British company. Now, let's see. A billion in income --- let's say half goes to the bottom line -- divided by the number of shares outstanding -- say 40 million -- is about $12.50/share. Pick a PE multiple -- say 20 -- that's only $250/share. This company could have a bright future ! ! ! I recognize there are alot of IF's, but this is simply an exercise to try to quantify the potential. rli

To: John Curtis who wrote (22315)	11/14/2000 8:41:39 PM
From: P. Ramamoorthy	Respond to of 27311

John, How about a reduction in short volume, next month? The smart ones will take advantage of it. jmo. Ram

To: John Curtis who wrote (22315)	11/16/2000 2:35:35 PM
From: mooter775	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

John, Interesting speculation. My WAG is that the short position will show a 300,000 share increase in the next published figures. Saw lots of shorting last week - easily 150,000 prior to Thursday. Don't know how much covering happened on Thursday, but did see shorting at $ 18.00 on Thursday and a lot of shorting on Friday and Monday. Tuesday's rise may have reduced that, but Wednesday and Thursday also showed more shorting. We'll see, but I'd guess that it will be up if the cutoff date is 11/11 - 11/15/00... P.S. Nice to see institutional ownership generally increasing in the 6/30 - 9/30 period as well, despite a pretty rocky market.... Bottom line: I think the wind shifted, and is now to the back of VLNC, esp if they can execute on some meaningful licensing deals.....