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To: LLCF who wrote (37256)	11/14/2000 12:07:23 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 436258

I thought Clinton lifted the restrictions on Canadian lumber at mid-year.

To: LLCF who wrote (37256)	11/14/2000 12:14:46 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Deflation you say..... Goods and services are presently deflating. This is due to falling global business costs through information technology and rising global competition. The only fly in the ointment has been rising oil prices. But this is a temporary phenomenon, the last gasp of the industrial age. Oil prices are not as intrinsically tied to corporate costs as they were during the shocks of the 70’s so this becomes much less of a sticking point. The commodity based inflation/deflation cycles described by the Kondratieff Agrarian/Industrial cycle are no longer relevant. This is an information age. The fear will become global deflation, not inflation. This is what the Fed fears most! This is where corporate margin pressure can come from. This is where the bear case resides. Margins will be simultaneously squeezed by greater competition and bolstered by rising efficiencies. Unit shipments will rise. Demand growth will continue. Competition will increase. Trade barriers will become ineffective. This is why other currencies are falling. They are clinging to industrial age economic principals while the world has dramatically shifted in front of their eyes. What will happen is that many companies will fail not because of global recessions, but because they fail to grasp the competitive truth. This is the main reason Europe (Euro) is failing. Message 14642346