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To: Oblomov who wrote (37282)	11/14/2000 1:43:06 PM
From: GraceZ	Respond to of 436258

I don't know from K-cycle, put your argument to the author of that post I referred to, quasar_1 , I'm sure he'd have an interesting defense.

To: Oblomov who wrote (37282)	11/14/2000 6:05:09 PM
From: quasar_1	Respond to of 436258

The F-Wave... I have always seen the K-cycle as more of a commodity based phenomenon, not an industrial one. The connection of anything to real interest rates has been obscured by the dominant power of the Fed in its false 'free market' interest rate manipulations. When Kondratieff originally stated his theory, the Fed did not hold the position of world interest rate arbiter as it does now. Much of the research work by Kondratieff was done on periods where the world was still highly agriculturally based. True the world had entered the first phase of the industrial revolution, but it was still a predominately commodity/agrarian economy. I have never seen the wisdom of application of K-wave theories on modern industrial economies, much less information based economies. Think of it this way. As technology advances all prices should systemically deflate. After all we can produce and deliver anything cheaper, faster and with more efficiency now that at any time in human history. This is solely due to technological achievement. Then why do nominal prices keep rising? Why do we have inflation in the first place? It can only be due to monetary phenomenon. It can only be due to a lack of free markets in money. This is primarily caused by the lack of a free market in the cost of money. If you go back and look at the rise of inflation over the past 70 years it has a conspicuous connection to the rise in power of the Federal Reserve. This interest rate/monetary phenomenon has nothing to do with the K-wave. Can this controlled market for money cause disruptions, disallocations, nominal asset crashes and the like? Of course it can. When a system is bereft of the instant feedback loop afforded by free information in a freely traded market without outside coercion, extreme states can become magnified. In other words, the thing to worry about isn't the unseen 'magic hand' of one Russian's theory rising up from the grave to force the markets into some boom/bust scenario, it is the very real hand of policy makers right now who simultaneously espouse free market while doing everything in their power to shield us from the more 'unpleasant', albeit temporary effects. This in essence is the pretense to knowledge. I can discount the K-wave, but I can never discount the folly of men who believe they are 'smarter' than impossibly complex systems. Caution...genius at work! Q