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Technology Stocks : John, Mike & Tom's Wild World of Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2003)	11/14/2000 3:09:16 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 2850

Cramer making some valid points---A New Economy Jeremiad By James J. Cramer 11/14/00 7:06 AM ET Just think, in one year, we have gone from thinking that there is a New Economy and an Old Economy and one is worth much more than the other, to thinking there is a bogus economy and a real economy and one is worthless, while the other's not so hot either. That's pretty much the roundtrip we see in the market year-over-year, as we dutifully note that the Nasdaq is back to where it was a year ago, when the New Economy was in full flower. Every day we see the winnowing out of the old New Economy stocks. We know they were priced in the billions and that seems downright silly now. So they are working their way back to the hundreds of millions and the millions and in some cases, like Streamline.com (SNLE:Nasdaq - news - boards) yesterday, to nothing. That's a gut-wrenching process, and most of us are in denial that it is happening. And who can blame us? Most of the articles we read in the press are still about the New Economy. I picked up an Industry Standard yesterday and it seemed like a November 1999 relic, ads and all, a kind of hermetically sealed New Economy time capsule. Most of the companies mentioned and all of those who advertised are probably fighting for their survival in one way or another now, although you would hardly know it from that magazine. In fact, the press is the last place to look for the transition back to the Old Economy. The editors at most of these places are still cranking out special supplements about the New Economy, hoping to snare the last of Cysive's (CYSV:Nasdaq - news - boards) ad budget dollars! Of course, to admit what I am writing here at either a brokerage house, with its revenue so heavily dependent on underwritings from the New Economy, or in the press, which has spent billions of man hours anointing the New Economy, is just plain heresy. The ink is hardly dry on the first few issues of eFortune, or eBusiness, or whatever. The dot-com suffix and the "i" and "e" prefixes are still in vogue in the journalism world, even as we barf them up in the stock market. Both brokers and the press have always been always trailing indicators where I come from anyway, so I don't mind stating the obvious. What seems a shame though is that this ratcheting down of valuations is trapping a lot of good money. There are still plenty of people invested in the blue-chips of the New Economy, even as the New Economy gets obliterated into the Old. Am I saying that there is no business at E.piphany (EPNY:Nasdaq - news - boards) or that Commerce One (CMRC:Nasdaq - news - boards) and PurchasePro (PPRO:Nasdaq - news - boards) aren't worth anything? Hardly. Heck, these are nifty little companies that have sprung up at just the right time. So is Vignette (VIGN:Nasdaq - news - boards) and Broadvision (BVSN:Nasdaq - news - boards). But let's go over that phrasing again -- and this time I won't be as subtle: Nifty little companies that sprung up at the right time. They are not gigantic companies that will have multibillions in revenue like General Electric (GE:NYSE - news - boards) or Emerson Electric (EMR:NYSE - news - boards). They are not the next behemoths that deserve giant market caps which are now preparing for when they take over the world. They are simply aberrations, relics and holdovers of that New Economy B.S. In other words, they are not houses of cards. They are just overvalued houses in a really bad neighborhood that gets worse by the day. I don't want to trash any of these folks in particular. It is not their fault that they have ridiculous market caps. It is the fault of the Buzzs and the Batchs. But I am not in an exonerating mood either, as I watch billions of investor capital be obliterated everyday. Do you own these blue-chips of the New Economy? If you do, wait till we get one of those bizarre rallies that takes this stuff up again -- don't worry, we will, always do -- and come join me in the only economy there is, the one that will exist long after this stuff gets taken down to the market caps of the rest of the economy. From the looks of things this morning, today will be a day where you will get some of that lift. I know, once they start rolling, you will think to yourself, "Cramer's an idiot. Higher prices beckon. I am holding out." Fine. Do what you want. I am not your broker. But please, don't kid yourself about the New Economy any more. The only places that garbage still flies is in the advertising departments of the media and the corporate finance/analyst nexus at the brokerage houses. Don't let them gaffe you any more. Sorry to be so blunt. Just tired of watching people get bonked by two-by-fours. Maybe I will recover my sense of humor later in the day.

To: John Pitera who wrote (2003)	11/14/2000 3:12:39 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 2850

Hi John: I would wait for earnings b/4 entering a position. I like the product for coordinating my palm to other software (ACT & Outlook) and with the PDA sales I would think its sales are also doing well. With the wireless world and new handheld devices to syn data the promise is there. I'm not quite ready to bet on the promise. Plus I think the market comes back and retests the lows (although hopefully it puts in a higher low). The $12 area seems like good support but it was just broken with the market and a lot of good supports have been broken lately. Have to go for now. crosscircuit.com

To: John Pitera who wrote (2003)	11/14/2000 7:38:28 PM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2850

I bought some PUMA today. It looked crappy as always but I keep hearing tales of a big portal agreement and/or buyout from the usual sources (which have been pretty good lately).

To: John Pitera who wrote (2003)	11/21/2000 11:34:07 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2850

John: We'll PUMA's earnings (loss) came out and I don't see support till $5.5 (this is why I don't hold thru earnings). With net cash & investments (incl accts. rec. less liabilities) the co's burn rate is good for about 4 yrs. and the c&i per share is appx. $1.5. Note quite sure if I like investing in this one while its still @ $8. If the market gets really ugly next year the $5.5 won't hold. At this point probably best hope is for a buyout (see Truff's comment) but I wouldn't holdout for one. I expect an ugly market next year (this year has only been ugly in techs) but also anticipate the FED easing (scary thought when you consider the last 500 basis points haven't started to permeate through the economy) which should start a rally (although who knows for how long and its too early to say whether that event will signal the bottom). On the B2B front (ouch) actually played golf a few weeks ago with the head of purchasing for a major chemical manufacturer. They are committed big time to ORCL and the american express exchange (ariba here). Pretty compelling reasons for the migration & they are not concerned with the transactional cost (am ex will do good with this one). At this point I'm assuming the CMRC $40 support doesn't hold in the next market flush although we can get to $58 in a sustained rally (resistance @ $48). Long term CMRC looks to be a solid investment (especially with the recurring revenue stream). Even in a tought market where capital spending shrinks as earnings drop (or disappear) this is one sector which will still see growth as manufacturers look to squeeze out expenses (been there done that and headcount is what is reduced). Not sure if CMRC will grow as fast (100%+ next year is the co. forecast) after next year but their expenses should start to come down in realtion to revenues and this could be one of the explosive revenue / growth companies of the next few years. I hope so since I was caught on Friday in this one. LU just doesn't quit. This will still be subject to year end tax selling. Done rambling (for now), have to go. Tim