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To: energyplay who wrote (78989)	11/14/2000 4:56:54 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

We both appear to be grasping at straws and making assumptions based on incomplete information. I don't put a lot of weight behind the PPT/ESF being the market's major support mechanism but I could be naive about the situation. We've seen the Nasdaq shave 40% off it's market cap. To me this is a very significant factor but I understand that others feel that the index continues to have a P/E (or valuation for lack of a better word) that is too high. I find it extremely difficult to 'value' an index or market as a whole. Even though it's much easier to try to put a value on an individual company or even a market subsector, it's still not an EASY task, IMO (Not to mention that the market will often ignore valuation metrics since they are subject to individual criteria. We all know that the market is more of a momentum game than an analytical process-ie the trend is your friend!). I believe much of the market's current progress (or lack thereof) has been defined by the 6 rate hikes. I'm of the opinion that it takes anywhere from 6 months to 18 months for a rate hike to finish being absorbed by the economy. With this as a starting point, we could easily have another year's worth of see-sawing action. Of course if the FED takes action or gives us an indication of future action (like changing their bias), the market will try to anticipate the future more quickly. We've had, and continue to have, a lot of reasons to be bearish on the markets for the short term. The key is not to put on blinders but to continue to assess the situation as new data is presented and evaluated. As to specific support levels on the NASDAQ, I haven't tried to evaluate the information available to me. I've been more concerned with the generalities at this time. My long term view of the market hasn't changed much. After months of yellow and red signals, I've become much more conservative in my trading philosophy, since I've mainly been playing the long side.