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To: mightylakers who wrote (8184)	11/15/2000 11:37:18 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

If China really goes ahead with TD-SCDMA, it's going to be for protectionist reasons. It's hard to argue that the standard could be accepted in any major market outside of China. The IPR situation would be even more nightmarish than the current 3G fights. I'm not sure I understand why Siemens is diverting R&D resources to TD-SCDMA when they have a real challenge in their hands with W-CDMA. They must feel that the Chinese version has real potential to justify the gamble. Maybe it will be better to be number one TD-SCDMA company than number five W-CDMA firm if you expect 200 million Chinese mobile subs in a couple of years. But they really left the development of the standard very late - I don't see how they can sell it to even Taiwan or Philippines with this schedule. If the Chinese manufacturers really start concentrating on this variation, they'll run the risk of what happened to Japanese vendors during the Nineties; they got stuck on PDC. Tero