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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (43452)	11/14/2000 6:16:30 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

No but you are talking out of both sides of your mouth. You say one thing then qualify it. It is like saying "I like you BUT....the BUT negates everything previously said. VBG "According to the math, we're not likely to see the downswing of 5.5 std devs below the mean. By definition, the odds of that happening are extremely slight." Monty

To: RetiredNow who wrote (43452)	11/14/2000 6:18:11 PM
From: Jim Lamb	Respond to of 77398

Ciena-Cisco Rumor Shows Networkers Are Thinking One Size Fits All By Scott Moritz Senior Writer 11/14/00 5:52 PM ET When in doubt, follow Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news). Over the last couple of trading sessions, investors found themselves tantalized by rumors of a blockbuster Internet infrastructure merger, between Cisco Systems and Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq - news). And while the widely speculated tie-up looks like a figment of the Street's collective imagination, the lingering sentiment is that the logic behind such a deal makes sense. That means some observers are expecting to see a wave of mergers among optical networking companies -- think Ciena, Nortel (NT:NYSE - news) and Lucent (LU:NYSE - news) -- and Internet router companies, such as Cisco, Juniper Networks (JNPR:Nasdaq - news), Extreme Networks (EXTR:Nasdaq - news) and Foundry Networks (FDRY:Nasdaq - news). These deals would allow networkers to cover new ground by offering their customers products using both technologies -- a goal of Cisco's. Networking stocks rallied Tuesday as the broader market rose sharply, led by a solid rebound in tech issues. Spanning the Globe Ciena became the rumor du jour Friday as speculation mounted that Cisco was in talks to buy the optical switch and transport-equipment maker. Cisco has been seeking to break out of the computer networking business and into the much-larger telecommunications market. The general thinking among observers is that a Ciena buy would solve a big part of that market-entry problem. Ciena's president and chief operating officer, Gary Smith, dismissed the rumor Monday in an interview at the UBS Warburg Global Telecom Conference at the Plaza Hotel in New York. "These things come up from time to time," said Smith. "There have been lots of rumors about it." Meanwhile, a person close to the Cisco camp says no Ciena acquisition is in the works. Jazzed? Ciena's 2000 run-up, vs. Cisco But Foundry's president and chief executive, Bobby Johnson, expects Cisco to chart the course for the industry. That, he says, points to increasing consolidation among optical players and router makers. For instance, someone listening to Johnson could come to the conclusion that Foundry's seven quarters of profitability and sizable customer list -- 60 Internet router customers and 2,700 enterprise, or office-network, customers -- would make a good fit in a Ciena or Corvis (CORV:Nasdaq - news) game plan. Talk Talk If you believe the pundits, networking's ultimate destination is the optical Internet, which allows talk, text and movies to whiz along on beams of light. And getting there will mean, at some point, combining two separate, though similar, businesses: optical telecom equipment and computer networking devices. Like trains on parallel tracks headed in the same direction, the two branches of networking technology are heading toward a place where coupling makes sense. "That will be the natural evolution for someone who wants to offer a full-service solution," says PBHG Technology & Communications fund manager Jeff Wrona, who holds Ciena, Extreme and Foundry. If the industry follows Cisco's lead and consolidates the two product types under one operation, the next two years could be a busy time for mergers, says Foundry's Johnson. Don't Believe the Hype Lucent's acquisition of Internet router maker Nexabit typifies the first stage of this consolidation, says Johnson. Nexabit all but vanished after Lucent bought it in a July 1999 stock swap. Johnson calls the deal an example of the buying-of-technology hype. He says the second stage of consolidation will lean more toward real products and real profits. "The genesis of all corporate mergers," says Johnson, is combining core competencies and driving down costs. Johnson says that as network equipment makers strive to become the one-stop shop for optical Internet supplies, the urge to merge will intensify. And with equipment spending slowing down and concerns about network overbuilding emerging, cash-hungry equipment makers eventually may come to see merging as the most attractive course of action. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Send letters to the editor to letters@thestreet.com. Read our conflicts and disclosure policy. Order reprints of TSC articles. Top

To: RetiredNow who wrote (43452)	11/14/2000 6:34:43 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

BTW who started this ignorance anyway? VBG Since I don't remember(I think it was the guy who made the billiant call using SD on Lucent)....how bout telling him to give this a try. Tell him to draw a vertical line from the top of the Leaning Tower of Pisa to the base (or as near as he can to the base). Then tell him to find the midway point or mean. Now tell him to jump from that spot 100 times and see how many times he goes up to the top of the tower. It doesn't take rocket science. The point is that there's more to it than finding equidistant points from the mean. There are certain factors pulling it one way or the other, and in technical analysis momentum indicators help to show the likely direction. VBG Monty