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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Galirayo who wrote (62486)11/15/2000 2:50:06 AM
From: Michael Watkins  Respond to of 99985
 
It's a flip of the coin. Shoe droppers appear out of the Blue Sky on a market that really acts like it wants to rally.

Well after a drop of over 1400 points (COMPX) since Sept, it shouldn't surprise anyone that a bounce develops. ;)

The apparent willingness of many market participants to search for bottoms, even though many have been scorched more than once since the top was put in back in March, leaves open the possibility that this isn't yet a bottom.

When a higher swing high and low are set on the daily, I'll start to be a buyer of retracements, but until then, just a scalper.

Incidentally, looking at monthly charts still, From 1990 Oct to 1998 Oct every swing was a higher high, higher low on the COMPX. Then a relatively brief dip to scare folks, and rapid move back up to placate them, resulting in the now-famous last swing covering some 278% of price appreciation on the COMPQ. The NDX even more stunning.

The picture now a little different.

1998
Higher low
Higher high
Lower low
Higher high - out of the mess already!

2000
Higher high
higher low
lower high
lower low

Just some thoughts.