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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken W who wrote (22118)	11/14/2000 11:07:43 PM
From: JoeinIowa	Respond to of 29382

AGA Preview: US Natural Gas Inventories Seen Flat to Up 10 Bcf Nov. 14-MAR-- By Robert Gibbons, BridgeNews New York--Nov. 14--U.S. natural gas storage levels are expected to have remained near flat or increased by a modest 10 billion cubic feet (bcf), according to a survey of brokers and analysts. As natural gas futures hit record highs Tuesday, there was some concern about the ability of production to keep pace with demand as the heating season gets underway. * * * With Dec futures settling at $6.016 per MMBtu Tuesday, many of those surveyed looking for an injection said a draw wouldn't be a shock. "Seven dollar natural gas is a very real possibility," Kyle Cooper, energy analyst for Salomon Smith Barney, told BridgeNews Tuesday. Cooper said his firm's meteorologist tells him the pattern looks pretty stable for the U.S. Mid-continent to receive cold weather. Cooper said his unchanged to 10 bcf injection forecast included the view that some injection in producing regions would be offsetting a draw in the Western U.S. Others agreed with the outlook for a draw in the west. Several traders and brokers said Wednesday's reaction to the AGA data will be scrutinized to see if participants have already put the expectations for a small injection into the market. Talk of widely varying estimates was prevalent among traders and brokers during the NYMEX trading session Tuesday. While most surveyed were expecting a modest 6 to 20 bcf injection, among those projecting an inventory build, there were other estimates as high as 30-45 bcf, and several traders and analysts said they were hearing of estimates of draws as much as 20 bcf. "I'm estimating flat to up, as high as 14 bcf. But I won't be shocked if it comes in and there was a draw," said a broker. In the prior storage report, the AGA data showed U.S. gas storage at 2,748 billion cubic feet for the week ended Nov. 3, up 36 bcf from the previous week, but down 259 from the same period of 1999. Wednesday's data will be for the week ending Nov. 10. The comparable year-ago data for the period ending Nov. 12, 1999, showed storage at 3,016 bcf, up 9 bcf from the previous week. The year-ago data shows that there was a draw in the following report for the week ending Nov. 19, 1999. The 5 bcf injection for the week ending Nov. 26 was the final injection until February 2000. The 36 bcf injection in last week's report was lower than the 45-55 bcf estimates and the Dec contract settled up 25.7 cents, or 5.10%, at $5.338 per MMBtu. That was off from the $5.44 high for that day and sources said cold weather forecasts were considered more of a factor, overcoming potential pressure from a build in U.S. distillate inventories. There will be probably be no such pressure Wednesday as Tuesday's American Petroleum Institute stock data showed distillate inventories down 55,000 barrels. As of the prior report, the producing region's storage increased 21 bcf to 687 bcf, 165 bcf below year-ago levels. The eastern consuming region had a build of 17 bcf to 1,678 bcf, or 91% of capacity. The deficit to year-ago levels in the East was 34 bcf. The western consuming region saw storage levels decrease by 2 bcf to 383 bcf of gas, still at roughly 76% of capacity. Western region storage levels were 51 bcf lower than a year ago, but narrowed the gap to 1999 supplies compared to the previous report. End Copyright 2000 Bridge Information Systems Inc. All rights reserved. The bridge.com ID for this story is BMDSRKW