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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCoolG who wrote (961)	11/15/2000 10:51:01 AM
From: Shaw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2293

I must admit, the way the Avnx traded yesterday, was unsettling, hopefully it was the result of short term doubts raised, by the CEO of level 3 as he blew off steam regarding George Gilder and his possible conflicts of interest. Anyway yesterday end up being a lets look at Avanex from the glass half empty perspective. Today is starting out better. Avanex, in my opinion has tremendous potential. Avanex's, Mr. Cao has a vision of an all optical system that remains open and runs with virtually no switches, as switches and routers create bottle necks. Cao's vision of an open optical system ends up being much more powerfull, and ultimately makes obsolete, or irrelevant, much of the existing hot optical infrastructure co.s, not too mention what will happen to thier valuations. Because Avanex presents a distant but realistic hope, for taking a position of leadership, regarding a next generation open all optical system, this is what I think is causing knowledgeable investors to start taking long term positions in here. This could turn out to be a great investment. However I have been cautious about how much stock I buy in here, because of the whole over valuation thing. Probably like others though, I had to get my feet, and get started on a long term position, as I didn't want to miss a possible great ride. Also in the mean time Avanex's finacial's are just starting to kick in nicely, with their line of current optical gear that enhances existing optical networks. If there is anything that justifies the present valuation, its Avanex's future play for an open optical system. In otherwords its the price you lock in here, for the ability to own a piece of significant optical realestate, that could trade for much higher prices in the future, if Mr. Cao's vision for the architecture of the future optical system is realized.

To: LLCoolG who wrote (961)	11/15/2000 2:36:14 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 2293

weren't you the one wanrning all of us about Extreme Network about a year ago? That is not my recollection. I went long EXTR in July '99 and got my head handed to me on a plate. I was right on the technology, GbE is a powerful solution and I was well ahead of the market in understanding the possibilities for GbE switching. I've never bashed EXTR as a technology company. But I must admit I am disappointed to have been caught up in the momentum game on the wrong side of the trade. Perhaps you have a longer time horizon than I do. I have no doubt whatsoever that AVNX will be trading significantly higher two years from now. But what I review is the macroeconomic condition and wonder out loud about what we can expect in a weakening market for the next several months. My point was to discuss what people who have new money to commit might want to be doing. I see the whole NAZ as quite dicey right now. For those who have AVNX at a good cost basis, or for the "investor" who got in at a higher price and is being forced to bide his/her time, I'm simply saying that the next few months are likely to be quite rocky as the FO sector has the wind knocked out of its excessive sails. Oops, looks like I'm beating "the economy, stupid" to death here. Don't think I'm singling AVNX out for special treatment. Best, Ray