Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim black who wrote (79082)	11/15/2000 1:00:36 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 95453

Numerous thoughtful posts today. Enjoying some great reads on & OT/eom

To: jim black who wrote (79082)	11/16/2000 10:51:41 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

re: <"Take heart," he said. "Eventually all bleeding stops."> ... very good Jim Black. How true; unfortunately we never know if the ESF/PPT triage` is going to bring the patient back from near death, or lead to a fatal bleed out. I agree this is a near insane market. In August; as I posted I took the bulk of my funds out of the market, invested in business and am now only trading with approx 30% of my profits over the last 2 years. I absolutely REFUSE - to give back any of this windfall and that's what I view this historic "fish in a barrell" trading opportunity here over the last two years to be - a "windfall". Trading should not be this easy and it won't be soon. Those who BS us with "Mad Max Margin" Bravaddo won't wash clean to the reality of the tape (as if they ever did) and if there ever was an environment where the external noise is controlling the tape it's here and now. The Oilpatch is a Cyclical Sector - everyone here from time to time; seems to forget that undeniable fact. The downside is usally swift & severe and arrives much, much sooner and into postitive earnings & fundametnals - as all cyclical tops should do... and that is also oft` forgotten here. Imho; 85% of Oilpatch investors traders would be money ahead - doing what the non-energy speciality fund managers do; enter & exit off of commodity price peaks & valleys. Enter when prices reach historic lows that are unsustainable & exit the tops that are as equally euphoric as the bottoms were bearish. Don't worry about hitting , or timing exact bottoms, or tops - aim for hitting & catching the middle 65-70% of the move and get in & get out ahead of the crowds. Stansky at Magellan is very bearish on Tech - and says it has a long, long way yet to go on the way down. Fidelity as a family; other than the tech funds who by charter must be tech invested; have been huge sellers of tech and Oils. We've had the exit of the Old Pro's from this market & they've clearly labeled it an irrational bubble; Buffet's refusal to participate - his huge entry into Silver, Soros & Druckenmiller's exit, Shopkorn, Julian Robertson and now recently Jeff Vinik closing down his Hedge Fund on a YTD 40-60% return and walking away... when he could have turned over the day to day to any number of associates etc and now Magellan's Stansky saying he's sold tech. No one seems to listen, let alone learn. 1997-1998's lessons seem too distant to learn from; let alone those from broader historic cycles. Gold moves in broad cycles and it is surely at a sentiment bottom - I love it; give me all the insults & digs... the XAU technically is very stable here; with positive OBV & Money Flows in many individual stocks like NEM. Personally; I have allready defined & limited what I am willing to lose to the downside via my exit in August of much of my capital and only being partially in here. Calls on OSX issue's give me leveraged upside similar to what being "fully, or substantially" invested would; but with a defined downside. Love, or hate Gold; it's had about 5 major rallies to XAU 150 - levels that are near 4 baggers from here - with 8-10 baggers in the small caps over the last 15 years. Everytime that Gold was forgotten, dismissed & given last rites - it rose like a Phoenix and it will again. Maybe I am wrong, but cashing in profits is never wrong in my book; but given the choice of Rubin & Greenspans Fiat Dollar, pieces of paper representing shares in a 10 year old Bull at still record valuations showing numerous signs of exhaustion, let alone shares in a cyclical sector at historic commodity price tops; or Gold and Cash ? ... it's not a question of having, or not having Gold; it's not "if" to be in Gold & Cash; but merely about "how much" Gold & Cash imho... If the OSX can not sustain a rally here at $6 Nat Gas & $35 Oil - literally an alltime record for the combination of commodity prices here - what does that tell everyone ? Hello.... ? Once again; 85% will be better off exiting with the masses at the first sign of commodity prices hitting their peak and if a combined alltime high is not a peak - what will be ? ... I'm salivating & waiting on that potential "Weather Spike" to short the NG pureplays... as that is the next Big & Easy trade on the Oilpatch horizon imho...as the "pause that refreshes" - while the Oil Majors determine where both Crude Prices & the US Economy/Demand "soft land" in 2001 is not occuring soon...and Natural Gas is near .dot com-ish here and there are no supply, or demand fundamentals that can sustain the doubling, or tripling of the 5 year avg NG price here - nothing even remotely close. NG will correct with vengenace; it may form a higher base than the last 5 year average; but 90% of E&P's will not trade at higher share prices once NG & Oil prices turn and it's just the next 3-4 months of winter left for any euphoric weather led speculative top - then it's over... Our old Tech friend PKTR just collapsed 43% intra-day... again, the best, of even the best cutting edge companies are still getting 40-50% one day market cap haircuts - that can NOT exist in a healthy, sane, sober market valuation environment... stocks are STILL extremely overpriced when this type of volatility exists... Cash & Gold - it's only a matter of "how much" - not if...