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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Lloyd who wrote (85503)	11/15/2000 3:05:33 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Respond to of 132070

You have a great hypothesis. To turn it into an explanation, you're going to have to do analysis instead of making assumptions, no matter how reasonable they may seem. You may want to look at pre-election polls -- they may offer the detailed breakdown you'd need to bolster your argument. Further, even if you're right about Bush's expected draw of Nelson voters and hence about the expected ratio of Bush votes to McCollum votes, you still need to show that the distribution of ratios you found somehow is unreasonable before adjusting them to find "missing" Bush votes, or that one or more counties are extreme, highly improbably outliers. Simply assuming all counties outside the inner quartiles need adjustment seems precipitous. -mb