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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: grinder965 who wrote (4615)	11/16/2000 11:08:16 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 196920

<You really only need to understand two things, 1)Do you believe that there will be approx. 1 Billion digital subscribers in the world within the next 3 to 5 years?, and 2)Is the platform for 3G going to be based on CDMA technology?. Perhaps the street and the institutions aren't making buy and sell decisions on the basis of those spread sheets you so fondly mention. At any rate, the Q is a very good case study for debunking two of Wall Streets sacred axioms, 1)the markets always look ahead, and 2)markets are efficient.> Grinder, we do need to put share price into the equation too. If the share price was $1,000 now, it might be that 1 billion CDMA subscribers in the next 3 to 5 years would NOT be enough to justify such a price. The 3G platform is definitely CDMA and all courts seem to agree that QUALCOMM has the proprietary rights they claim, so we don't need to worry about that question anymore. The idea of markets looking ahead and being efficient is a joke. "Markets" don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, let alone next year. Analysts do like their spreadsheets with real numbers from profit and loss accounts, because it gives something real to analyse. The fluffy, fuzzy, future doesn't fit into spreadsheets. They need hardcore P:E ratios, growth rates etc. That leaves the future guesswork profits for us! Mqurice