Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

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To: GraceZ who wrote (37848)	11/15/2000 5:56:19 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

100% agreed, ditto on your comment re. consensus. however, you have to keep in mind that a bearish consensus has by no means formed - even the bears are looking for a tradable low in the near future. last week AAII had 63% bulls and 9% bears, one of the most extreme bullish consensus readings in the poll's history. that said, all former bubble favorites - and that includes of course the semis - are liable to produce pretty sizeable, and thus tradable rallies as the bear market continues to unfold. you have to give it a bit of time...remember, the bull market progressed well beyond what anyone thought possible, or reasonable only a few years ago. and yet, institutional money managers currently entertain their most bullish, and most fully invested stance of the past 6 years. in other words, they are NOW more bullish than they were with the NAZ in triple digits and the Dow in the 3,000's. the bottom will not just have SI posters looking down - when it is nigh, EVERYBODY will be looking down, not even Harpo will be bullish anymore, assuming she still has her job by that time. that said, using SI as a contrary indicator for very short term time frames is often amusingly accurate.

To: GraceZ who wrote (37848)	11/15/2000 6:27:58 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Grace, You are a breath of fresh air in this den of really dumbazz bears. -g But... crashes and bubbles are statistically rare.

To: GraceZ who wrote (37848)	11/15/2000 6:40:59 PM
From: maceng2	Respond to of 436258

There are certain wilderbeasts that let others try and cross the stream first, but for some reason know it's a good idea to get ahead of the pack LOL pearly.

To: GraceZ who wrote (37848)	11/15/2000 10:19:17 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<Why would anyone pay anything for a stock, in the scheme of things, what the hell is a stock certificate worth anyway? You can site all kinds of metric or analysis but it really has no other value than the one assigned to it by a fluctuating and irrational mass of buyers and sellers.> Typically a stock is deemed to be worth the present value of it's future cash flows or theoretical cash flows. It's the 'high growth' stocks that are hard to value. DAK