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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john via who wrote (39706)	11/15/2000 5:46:29 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Even with a lower guidance, i think many analysts will recommend it at the current low price. There was no sense of the semiconductor cycle turning sharply down in their conference call. Given the valuation for this stock, I think many will will say that it is worth buying at current prices. Forward PE is about 11 to 12 or so. That would only be high if there was some risk of growth coming to an abrupt halt. Instead we are seeing AMAT accepting the forecast of 20% growth for next year as published by the semiconductor industry association. In addition, note that AMAT admitted to being cautious going forward and may have given themselves a lower bar for the next quarter just so they can beat it easily. No need to to be optimistic now; do it later on is a good strategy, IMHO. Even if gross margins come in line with current quarter, they still hit the 80 cent range. I think they already know they will get at least 80; and just want to surprise the street at next earnings. That was the impression I got from their cc. I think AMAT heads higher tomorrow. PE of 11 to 12 for next year is a steal. Remember bookings were strong! Good Luck.

To: john via who wrote (39706)	11/15/2000 6:09:15 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Respond to of 70976

then a lot of analysts will be issuing reports lowering their forecasts. It's not all good news. If only it were... and money managers are not stupid and know that we are entering new cycle. Stock not always go up at the top of the eps, and down at the bottom.

To: john via who wrote (39706)	11/15/2000 6:09:15 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

then a lot of analysts will be issuing reports lowering their forecasts. It's not all good news. If only it were... and money managers are not stupid and know that we are entering new cycle. Stock not always go up at the top of the eps, and down at the bottom.

To: john via who wrote (39706)	11/15/2000 7:51:26 PM
From: Ram Seetharaman	Respond to of 70976

All the negativity is already built into this stock - that is why it is not tanking much in after hours. The sad part is, over the past several weeks, it took the entire sector with it. When SOX index hit the low 600s and was almost going to go below 600, it concerned me, but the past two days, we have had a healthy rebound. After this election uncertainty gets over with next week, we will have a healthy SOX index heading over 1000 in the next several weeks! AMAT will lead!