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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (85524)	11/15/2000 7:02:50 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

>>If this were not the case, we would have heard the Republicans hollering for recounts.<< nadine, not true. the winning party w/b foolish to want hand counts and risk losing. if the validity of the demo district hand counts are upheld then, and only then, will the republicans cry for hand counts in their districts. until then, hand counts are evil to the winning party. remember, the pubs are claiming the hand counts are wrong and their is a deadline that has passed. they can't claim that while doing it...

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (85524)	11/15/2000 8:08:21 PM
From: Ronald J. Clark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Nadine, Just curious, but what is your authority for "older" machines makeing more "mistakes" than newer machines? Also, where do you get your information regarding the age of the machines in various districts (i.e. Democratic districts have older machines than Republican districts). Are you just assuming this is so, or do you have supporting facts?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (85524)	11/15/2000 10:55:09 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Nadine Carroll; About the recount... I believe that Gore won the votes cast on election day, and that if Bush gets the Florida electoral votes, he will have "stolen" the election. Of course I also think that he will be the "legitimate" winner, as he will have stolen it fairly and squarely. If there is any new data, I reserve the right to switch my viewpoint though... But I think that it is unlikely that the judicial branch will allow this, so I would say we have to look forward to 4 more years of Democratic control of the White House. (Notice that I didn't say "Gore in the White House". With all the nut cakes running around, the inhabitant of the White House is more likely to be determined by the bullet than the ballot.) The issue is that the counties that used punch card voting machines were predominately Gore supporting counties. Because of the problems with chad, machine counts of these votes were underestimates for both candidates, but hand counting will give proportionately more new votes to Gore than to Bush. Here are the figures for the presidential vote by county type: (Election results do not include Palm Beach recount, but all the other county recounts are included. That doesn't matter, as I am only trying to find out whether the punch card votes were predominantly Gore or Bush) Gore Bush Punch Card Counties 1,862,432 1,656,768 Mark Sense Counties 1,046,682 1,253,306 --------- --------- Total 2,909,114 2,910,074 (Bush by 960) Various numbers are used for the punch card error rate. Given the results from hand counting small ballot samples, it appears that 1% is about right for the error rate. The primary error is the appearance of no vote where the voter did make a vote. This is due to the chad not being pushed completely separate from the card. Adding 1% to the punch card results adds 18,624 votes to Gore and 16,568 votes to Bush. This adds about 2,056 votes to Gore. This is likely to be larger than the Bush margin provided by the overseas absentee vote, and this is undoubtedly why the Gore campaign has said that they would accept the results of a full hand counting of the state while the Bush campaign has not accepted that offer; such a hand count is certain to give the election to Gore. Clearly the pros have better numbers than my 1% figure. Gore Bush Punch Card Counties 1,862,432 1,656,768 1% Punch Card recount 18,624 16,568 Mark Sense Counties 1,046,682 1,253,306 --------- --------- Total 2,927,738 2,926,642 (Gore by 1096) -- Carl P.S. Sources for the above numbers: Which counties use which voting system is described here: election.dos.state.fl.us Raw presidential vote figures by Florida county are here: tdo.com