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To: RetiredNow who wrote (14261)11/15/2000 11:08:44 PM
From: Hank Stamper  Respond to of 24042
 
mindmeld,
"So is it inflationary? "
Good question. As of today, the answer is a clear "no." Some segments of the economy are inflating but, due to the strong dollar and phenomenal productivity growth, the broad economy is not seeing much pressure.

So why did put the brakes on? One word: preemtive.

Question: if he opened up the gates and did a rate cut in January, (I'll bet you a good bottle of scotch he doesn't) how long would it take to work through to the corporate bottom line? (Hint, how long does it take for a rate hike to work through the system?) This question is important because the blow-ups in stocks are due to softening in profits. So how long before profits are bolstered by a rate hike?

Stocks will continue to be under pressure until there is a seachange in profit potential. We may not have a recession now in the general economy, but we've got a profit recession and it will not end until there are three or four rate hikes.

Ciao,
David Todtman