Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bela_ghoulashi who wrote (16772)	11/16/2000 7:04:55 AM
From: bela_ghoulashi	Respond to of 65232

Excellent post on TQNT, bland's largest holding: messages.yahoo.com Re: tony--re tqnt & rfmd by: tonytechcomm (38/M/Cincinnati, OH) 11/15/00 6:22 pm Msg: 19547 of 19592 >>i find rfmd's top line swan dive hard to explain, even with hindsight. could tqnt have won some contracts from rfmd?<< I'm not sure that TQNT could have won any contracts from RFMD in a direct sense -- meaning that I doubt that they would have replaced them in any handsets, though I am unsure. What I do believe we can say is that TQNT is gaining marketshare at everyone else's expense, RFMD included. I believe that too many people confuse marketshare with whether or not someone actually loses an existing design win. That rarely happens. What does happen is that everyone is battling for the same finite (but growing) circuits in the next generation products. The fact that TQNT will have grown its wireless business at double the rate (approx. 120% in CY2000) of anyone else in the industry speaks volumes. The fact that TQNT is the ONLY major supplier in the space that is demonstrating Q3-CY2000 AND Q4-CY2000 growth in wireless speaks even louder yet. Make no mistake about it, there were definitely channel inventory issues with the handset OEMs overestimating CY2000 demand. TQNT's ability to actually increase wireless revenues during that gloomy period is absolutely incredible. There is nothing not to like here. If you annualize the current quarter's EPS, we are still cheaper than our peers, especially when you consider that two of them (RFMD and ANAD) will actually report lower EPS in Q4-CY2000, and dramatically lower at that. TQNT is growing much faster than everyone, and I have to keep repeating ... LOOK AT THE MARGINS!!! TQNT is clearly getting the most important wins in this space, and we're not just talking wireless. You do not achieve 55% gross margins without having the products that are easily in the highest demand. Demand drives margins. Competition -- or lack thereof -- drives margins. The fact that TQNT is absolutely blowing away the competition there is VERY TELLING! It is a clear statement that TQNT is easily the furthest away from being commoditized. BTW, the chart looks absolutely beautiful. We got all of those bullish divergences on the momentum indicators that I was hoping for based on this follow-through. Volume was HUGH today. And, on the daily chart, MACD, MACD histogram, stoch, OBV and RSI are all showing very bullish divergences strongly indicating that TQNT has seen a significant bottom and wants to move upward technically. Obviously every tech stock is going to be somewhat at the mercy of the overall NASDAQ market, but TQNT looks very, very good here. Once again, we owe Steve and the gang a great deal for being so accomodating to all of us TQNT investors with these mid-quarter calls. The fact that another will be coming up shortly is outstanding. Of course, it doesn't hurt when you continue to have such a good story to tell during those CCs. I like where we're at, both fundamentally and technically from here. Best wishes, Hi_fiber_diet & gang! Tony