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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (79198)	11/16/2000 11:04:44 AM
From: seminole	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Recession, maybe but <<< I'd imagine a recession will arrive the same way - into the face of denial, supported clearly by numerous indicators & economic stats; but ignored, spun and continually denied by many as just a temporary contraction in a bigger expansion.>>> By definition a recession is a contraction of two or more quarters. For buy and hold positions in good companies 2-3 quarters is a temporary contraction. (For traders and market timers, a month is an eternity.) <<< How about a credit tapped-out consumer who has a "negative" savings rate >>>> This negative savings rate government stat never goes away. Twenty years and still negative. People use credit cards, use the float on the cards and do not save at banks anymore these consumer trends distort the savings rate stat. People invest in retirement accounts, real property, brokerage accounts. I have had a negative savings rate for 15 years, big deal, not tapped out.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (79198)	11/16/2000 12:08:02 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Respond to of 95453

Slider On The Black RE: << Shareprices reflected the reckless liquidity & money pump of Rubin & Greenspan and now we're slowly seeing the collapse of complete industries & subsectors - Telcom, all the .com iNets etc. BioTech is beginning to crack; still lots of smoke & mirrors to go here - KREM at a PE of 100 etc... all mania's eventually "over-swing" to the other direction and even if the market does not "over-swing" but; merely returns to even historic valuation multiples of this decade long bull; the downside is still substantial. >> You are right in many of the points you make and I may well be too optimistic. My point is that even given the strength of your arguments, it does not necessarily follow that we will "slowly see the collapse of complete industries and subsectors." I think it is noteworthy that the nas has lost about 40% of it's value from it's high in a matter of mere months, gdp growth estimates have dropped significantly, a huge amount of "money" in the form of paper wealth from stock gains has evaporated and guess what, it's business as usual in the markets and in terms of what real people experience in the real economy. The actual effect of all that is to take a lot of the bubble air out of the balloon, force banks to make better lending decisions, force investment money back into fundamentally sound businesses and sectors and let business Darwinism cull out the sick and the weak. I don't see this as a sign of a coming collapse, I see it as a necessary mechanism to avoid a collapse. That's why I say that right now I don't see a catalyst that will spiral out of control and cause a major recession, unless the energy picture changes for the worse on an intermediate or long term basis. With regard to tech and biotech, I think that those cotton gins will make a difference and that that polio vaccine will be a big seller (g). This is a pretty remarkable period in our history. We have made quantum leaps in the way we process information, in the intelligence of our machines and in our understanding of and control of biology, including human biology. We are on the verge of being able to turn on or off the aging process in individual cells in our bodies to retard or reverse the aging process (but not in our brains unfortunately), grow hearts and other organs in laboratories from cells from individual donars with their dna makeup built in, repair previously unrepairable nerve damage and generally cure disease at a genetic and cellular level. These breakthroughs may have lots of bumps in the road, but the potential for any of them is enormous in terms of benefits to man and crass commercial value to the companies that patent and perfect the process'. On a very tangible level, a vcr with the same functions as one costing $1,000 20 years ago is now much smaller, works better and costs $59. Trust me I know, our old one just got replaced. A vehicle that can travel 130 mph, run virtually trouble free for well over 100,000 miles and get 30+ miles to the gallon has replaced much inferior vehicles from years past for much less price in terms of real dollars. Beyond the very real picture you paint, this picture lurks. The long run looks good, the only question is how great are the oscillations on the way. My optimism is based on the strength of the technological knowledge curve and the economic leadership of the fed, as demonstrated over the last decade. My fears are based on the political uncertainty in the world in places like the middle east, Russia, and third world countries and the energy crisis, which I learned of in large part from information posted and cited on this thread. I do feel like a deer in the headlights for the near term, but if I were a long term investor, which I am not, I would only be concerned about entry points with the convergence of the tech revolution and a lot of demographically generated money looking for a place to park. Ed