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To: Loki who wrote (86889)11/16/2000 1:45:21 PM
From: MeDroogies  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
I disagree on a few of them...

AOL should (though not necessarily) eventually develop margins similar to most TV media outlets (very profitable). There is no reason why this can't (or should) occur. It isn't an ISP anymore, so your question must be rhetorical. While they do provide an ISP, it isn't their main focus anymore. Worldcom provides the backbone, now. Most users of AOL stay with it for a few simple reasons - they've set up their portfolios, their email, their buddy list...all things they don't want to give up. It's a pain to move, basically.

Amazon is turning their ship around. It's a low margin business, to be sure, but they are no longer selling below cost. Where 6 months ago I'd have agreed with you...I would now disagree. Also, based on the tech aspects of their business, they should be able to start increasing margins as time goes on. Whereas KMart would get a slim (say 5%) margin, AMZN should be able to squeeze 10-15% due to reduced overhead and improved inventory control.

Priceline is a joke. I don't know how they will make their model work, but they do have great name recognition. I suspect they will get bought out. Or William Shatner will die and they'll lose their spokesperson.

EBay has a very loyal following, slim margins, but the opportunity to expand into new markets. I don't know how long it will take, or what they will do...but they do have alot of opportunity.


Of the 4, AOL is the clear winner and leader. They have already justified their multiple over and over again. They will likely continue to do it for some time. The savings of the combined TWX/AOL companies alone make the merger worthwhile, while the additional cobranding opportunities become astounding.
The success of two mediocre summer movies (Bring it On and The Perfect Storm) can be laid at the feet of AOL's heavy promotion. While neither was a blockbuster, both achieved better than would be expected....