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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (53383)	11/16/2000 6:39:24 PM
From: Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

It's funny how two people with different biases can read the same news article and see opposite information. Johnd posted a link to this article... biz.yahoo.com ....and concludes "PCs, windows2000 picking up" whereas I get from it the following: (1) European PC shipments, which according to Ballmer are one of the bright spots in MSFT's fiscal outlook, are only expected to be up by 14.6 in 2001, and only up 10% this year, near historic lows. Through 2004, we can expect European PC sales to increase by about 10.7% annually, compared to 20.6% over the past two years. (2) Notebook sales, which have been a relatively hot growth area for MSFT so far this year, should gradually fall from about 35% in 2000 to about 16% by 2004. All said, these numbers don't add up to justification for a 35:1 P/E for a monopoly company with high market saturation. it's reasonable to expect MSFT's share price to fall to around 30 by year's end, assuming that no new bad news comes from the Appeals Court by then. Dave