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Technology Stocks : Global Crossing - GX (formerly GBLX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TechMkt who wrote (9119)11/17/2000 10:30:46 AM
From: jopawa  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15615
 
Goldman, Sachs & Co. Investment Research

GX - Reiterate RL; Market Is Missing the Strong Data Growth In The Qtr

***************************************************************************
* The group and GX remains under intense pressure, but the strength of *
* GX's recent quarter eluded some, and the valuation has gotten very *
* attractive. Investors have been worried about the fundamentals, and *
* valuation. Close scrutiny of the quarter should help the fundamental *
* argument, and the valuation is now as attractively valued as the Bells, *
* with triple the EBITDA growth. In the quarter cash revenues rose 48% to *
* $1.367 billion slightly exceeding expectations, while cash EBITDA rose *
* 75% to $355 million, beating our number by 6%. An 18% discount rate in *
* our DCF would produce a $32 value, implying a 10x of '02 EBITDA, and *
* 3.7x of '02 revs. The current price yields a 6x of '02 EBITDA and 2.2x *
* of '02 revs. *
***************************************************************************

* WHAT THE MARKET MISSED IN THE QUARTER? The market worries about the
declining voice market, and questions the sustainability of fiber
capacity sales. The results of the quarter should have alleviated
concerns on both issues, but didn't because GX's numbers need to be
really scrutinized to pick out the positive trends. The three key
factors we think most missed were :1) data growth (excluding capacity
sales) is very strong in the carrier business, and should remain strong;
2) because of the nature of its voice business GX's is not under the
same pressure as others, and it is a much smaller piece of the pie than
for others; 3) undersea capacity sales growth is strong now, and should
remain strong, even with 30% price declines that we expect in the
market.

* VALUATION IS VERY ATTRACTIVEWe fully expect GX to be able to achieve
compounded annual growth in cash revenue and cash EBITDA over the next
five years of 29%, and 45% respectively. Despite these robust growth
rates, that we think the next few quarters will demonstrate are
sustainable and quite visible, the market is trading GX like a slower
growing (yet perceived more defensive) Bell ILEC. Our DCF, using a 15%
discount rate produces a $41 price, and at a more extreme 18% discount
rate a $32 price, both providing sharp upside from current levels. At
the current $15.50 price, the EBITDA and revenue multiples are, 8.7x '01
EBITDA, and 2.7x '01 revenues. At the $41 price, the EBITDA and revenue
multiple would be quite conservative for a company with this growth
rate, 17.9x '02 EBITDA, and 5.6x '02 revenues. The Bells now trade in a
range of 6.8 - 9.1 x '01 EBITDA, and 2.9 - 4.1x '01 revenue. GX's
multiples are about in the middle of the undersea carriers' range,
despite the fact that it is up and running, with $5 billion of annual
cash revenues and $1.4 billion of cash EBITDA.

CAPACITY SALES AND DATA LEADS REVENUE GROWTH
Cash revenue of $1,316 million, was up $414 million, or 46% versus the year
ago quarter. The drivers of growth were capacity sales and data services
sales. Cash capacity sales of $407 million in the third quarter ($354
million deferred and $53 million reported in the quarter under GAAP
accounting,) was more than double the $192 million year ago figure. Data
services (excluding capacity sales) rose $119 million to $306 million in
the quarter. We calculate that the $306 million in data services was
comprised of $186 million from commercial and $120 million from carrier
(excluding any capacity sales.) This mix suggests the strong improvement
in end user customer sales for IP VPN and IP transit, as well as
traditional data services, frame relay and ATM. Data services revenue
growth (excluding any capacity sales) represented nearly 30% of the growth
in cash revenues in the quarter.

VOICE GROWTH NOT A SIGNIFICANT RISK AREA
Unlike the incumbent IXCs, where voice is a rapidly disappearing business,
GX serves market segments that will allow it to continue to see growth as a
contributor to the top line and bottom line. We calculate that Commercial
voice revenue was about $153 million in the quarter, and Carrier voice was
$229 million. Carrier voice for the quarter was up about 26% for the year,
and commercial voice appears to be flat year over year. We don't see much
of a deviation in the commercial voice side (although we do expect short
term price hikes by the IXCs), but we do see Carrier sales continuing
relatively strongly. GX has about 3% of the total carrier voice market
share. It is a business GX can focus on, and we believe it can take share
from others not focused here. And, it's profitable with a 20% gross
margin. We don't think this is a driver of growth, but nor do we see it as
the 'toxic waste' that others fear. With commercial voice, excluding CLEC,
representing 11% of revenue and carrier voice at about 18% of revenue, we
see limited risk in the voice business, and moderate upside contribution.

ACHIEVING STREET CONSENSUS '01 REVENUE TARGETS IS NOT A STRETCH
Our model assumes that GX will hit cash revenues of $6.76 billion next year
(28.5% growth), and cash EBITDA of $2 billion. We don't view this as a
stretch. To get there on revenue the following can happen: Comerical Data
growth (excluding IPC) of 100%; Commercial voice down 15%; CLEC revenues
flat; consumer voice down 15%; capacity sales up 30%; carrier data services
up 100%; and carrier voice services up 30%; and then $300 to $400 million
of new networking contracts for multi-national accounts and network
outsourcing. We view all of these figures as very achievable, particularly
in light of the third quarter's growth.

EBITDA GROWTH AHEAD OF PLAN. GX beat our cash EBITDA number by about $20
million. It appears that the improvement was a direct function of a
stronger mix of revenues, as well as better costs within existing
businesses. Data growth, strong carrier growth, and of course the strong
advance in capacity sales all contributed to what believe is a sustainable
improvement in EBITDA margins. To achieve our 2001 EBITDA estimate of $2
billion (which implies an improvement in margin from 26% to 30%), simply
requires the composition of revenue growth fall in line with our
expectations, since the mix shift is producing the margin gain.

INVESTOR CONCERNS REGARDING REVENUE GROWTH UNFOUNDED
This market is obsessed with risk. And, given what stocks have done
lately, this is a healthy paranoia. However, there is value in putting the
risks in perspective, and separating the real risks from the possible
risks. In the case of GX, this is extremely important, because we think
there is so much upside potential. Strong growth in revenue and EBITDA is
indeed possible in this company, and the market is not recognizing this
right now. Below, we address some of the concerns investors are voicing:
(1) Voice revenue not as big a risk. Voice revenues, excluding CLEC
operations, constitute about 32% of Global Crossing's total pro forma cash
revenues reported in the third quarter. This compares favorably to AT&T
and WorldCom which derive about 60% and 55% of their respective revenues
from voice services.
(2) Strong price elasticity in the trans-Atlantic market is spurring
demand, fueling revenue growth opportunities. Average pricing in the trans
Atlantic capacity market has fluctuated around $1 million per STM-1 for the
past four quarters, reflecting continuing strong demand, and not an excess
of supply. In addition, between its AC-1 cable and its 50% ownership
stake in Yellow, GX will control a significant portion on the available
capacity in this market through 2001, which should mitigate competitive
pricing pressures.
(3) Revenue growth will not be materially impacted as Level 3 migrates off
GX's network.
We don't expect that declining revenue streams from LVLT will have a
material impact on revenue growth opportunities for GX. Level 3 will begin
to migrate traffic off of GX's North American network onto its own network
as newly completed portions enter into service. Currently, GX collects
less than $200 million in revenues from LVLT annually, constituting about
only 3.5% of 2000 total revenues. LVLT's traffic roll over should occur in
a very managed way reducing the revenue shock of losing the revenues all at
once, thus allowing for new traffic to come on-line to replace LVLT's
decreasing revenue contribution.
(4) Customers aren't dying off. With the demise of many dot.coms investors
are worried about the sustainability of growth for carries like GX. The
fact is that the vast majority of GX's growth comes from carriers (i.e. 52%
of sales growth) and multinational businesses. The data and internet
explosion are indeed producing the surging demand growth, but its sources
are from more traditional sources than investors fear. One good example of
this is the fact that the company has not experienced any material
deterioration in credit quality and receivables collections.



To: TechMkt who wrote (9119)11/17/2000 10:39:13 AM
From: jopawa  Respond to of 15615
 
November 17, 2000

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Flap Between Gilder, Level 3
Raises News-Disclosure Issue
By ROBERT MCGOUGH and SHAWN YOUNG
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

A fracas between influential technology guru George Gilder and a telecommunications company raises the question of whether newsletters adequately disclose their potential conflicts of interest.

The telecom firm, Level 3 Communications, says that it dropped out of favor in Mr. Gilder's newsletter, the Gilder Technology Report, about four months after it declined to pay $100,000 to help sponsor a three-day Gilder-hosted conference that ends Friday in Charleston, S.C.


James Crowe, chief executive of Level 3, says he doesn't know if that is why his firm was dropped from the list. But he calls for Mr. Gilder to "disclose any economic interests that you may have in companies that you pick and pan." He adds: "If he holds himself up as an objective analyst, he owes it to his readers to disclose any potential conflicts."

Mr. Gilder -- whose newsletter has potent power to move stock prices -- says it is "baloney" to assert that sponsorships at his conferences influence his recommendations. He attributes Mr. Crowe's ire to the fall in the price of Level 3 stock when it was dropped as a Gilder pick, adding, "His charges are so silly that I can hardly even talk about them."

No matter who's right, the flap underscores for investors that they don't really know whether newsletters have any financial ties to the stocks they write about. The problem: Newsletters aren't under any requirement to provide information about potential conflicts of interest. The Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't regulate newsletters, other than holding them accountable, like any other investor, for violations of laws concerning investment fraud.

In an interview, Mr. Gilder reviews his list of "Telecosm Technology" companies, the equivalent of a recommended list, and says that nearly three-fourths of the companies never bought sponsorships to his conferences. The closest Mr. Gilder says he has come to adding a company to the list after getting paid involved Motorola and Iridium, a Motorola-backed company. In this instance, Iridium bought a sponsorship, and Mr. Gilder subsequently added Motorola to his list.

"I really do think Crowe was grasping at straws," Mr. Gilder says about Mr. Crowe's criticisms. "The credibility of my list is my most valuable asset. The idea that I'm taking money to put names on the list is utterly devastating to my company. I'd retire before I do that."

But the exchange has prompted Mr. Gilder to disclose more about sponsorships; specifically, he disclosed to The Wall Street Journal which of the 36 companies on his list have paid for conference sponsorships. And he maintains that he has repeatedly disclosed his largest stockholdings, adding that he periodically posts this information on his Web site.

Few newsletters have power to move stocks like Mr. Gilder's. This past Monday, when the Gilder Technology Report was published online and revealed that Level 3 had been dropped as a recommended stock, trading volume in the company's stock leaped, and the price dropped 16%, or nearly $6, to $30.25. The next day, Mr. Crowe complained in a speech at a UBS Warburg investor conference that the stock had been dropped from Mr. Gilder's list after Mr. Crowe refused to pay what the executive calls "a hefty bill" to be a speaker at the Gilder conference in Charleston, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

Why did Mr. Gilder drop from his list a company that as recently as June he described as "poised to change the world?" Mr. Gilder says that his technical analysts concluded that rival 360Networks was more cutting edge, and was executing better, so he added 360Networks and dropped Level 3. In recent months, some Wall Street analysts have widened slightly their estimates for fourth-quarter losses at Level 3, but they have maintained their recommendations and one even raised it. Mr. Crowe says Mr. Gilder is wrong to favor 360Networks' technology.

The stage for the conflict was set in mid-July when Mr. Gilder called Mr. Crowe asking him to speak at the conference. Mr. Gilder says Mr. Crowe declined to be a speaker, citing a conflict; Mr. Crowe says he did agree to speak.

Subsequently, Mr. Gilder's organization contacted Level 3 and asked the company for as much as $100,000 to be a conference sponsor, both sides agree.


Mr. Gilder supplements his newsletter business by holding these conferences, which are attended by investors, analysts, executives and others. While company officials may address conference goers without being sponsors, according to Mr. Gilder, the sponsors have the ability to demonstrate their technology and may set up booths. Sponsorships are routine occurrences at conferences, including some sponsored by this newspaper and by Dow Jones, publisher of The Wall Street Journal and WSJ.com.

Mr. Crowe says he and his staff believed they had to pay in order to speak at the conference -- and they weren't willing to do that. "If we are incorrect, then I missed an opportunity to speak, which is unfortunate," the executive says.

Mr. Gilder, noting that Mr. Crowe had spoken at a prior Gilder conference, adds: "I don't understand how he could make this association."

Mr. Gilder compares sponsorships to advertising, and says there is no influence on him, "any more than the advertisements in the pages of the Wall Street Journal have any influence on what" runs in the news sections, he says.

What stocks does Mr. Gilder hold? He says the "bulk of my holdings" are in four companies: Applied Materials, Qualcomm, Atmel and JDS Uniphase. Of those, only Applied Materials, his biggest personal holding, has never been on Mr. Gilder's list. An associate adds that Mr. Gilder also owns stock in Wave Systems, a company on whose board he sits, but which isn't on Mr. Gilder's list. Mr. Gilder says he has many relatively small stakes that he couldn't name off the top of his head. Mr. Gilder also has personal pension money managed by Velocity Capital, a tech-oriented firm in Palo Alto, Calif., but he says he doesn't know the holdings in the portfolio.

Which of the 36 companies on Mr. Gilder's current list have been sponsors at conferences? Mr. Gilder and an associate cite Qualcomm, Lucent, Ciena, Nortel, JDS Uniphase, Broadcom, Terrayon, Texas Instruments and Conexant. In these cases, they say, the companies were sponsors after they got on the list.

Of Motorola and Iridium, Mr. Gilder was highly critical of Iridium and its technology even as it sponsored his conferences, Mr. Gilder says. Iridium has since filed for bankruptcy.

Counting Motorola, Mr. Gilder thus has gotten sponsorships from 10 of the 36 companies. In the past two years, he has dropped eight companies from the list. Among companies dropped from the list, Qwest, Tut Systems and XO Communications (formerly NextLink) say they weren't approached about sponsorships before being dropped.

Mr. Gilder has been criticized for potential conflicts before. After publishing in May an opinion piece on the editorial pages of The Wall Street Journal that was critical of AT&T Wireless, an editorial in the paper 10 days later faulted the piece for not disclosing Mr. Gilder's investment in Qualcomm, inventor of a technology that competes with AT&T Wireless. Now, Mr. Gilder recalls, he also owned some AT&T stock at the time, albeit less than he owned of Qualcomm.

Why doesn't he regularly disclose his holdings, or the sponsorships by companies he recommends? "It's irritating, this implication that writers can't write about anything without disclosing every possible interest," he says. He says he spent $8 million a couple of years ago to buy out partners of his who wanted to run an investment operation affiliated with his newsletter, because he thought it would present an unacceptable conflict.

Mr. Crowe says he has gotten a few "attaboy" communications from executives who feel tired of being hit up for sponsorships at conferences, or who think more needs to be disclosed about conflicts among analysts and others who give advice about stocks. "It's simply fair disclosure that any objective analyst should make to disclose any potential conflicts of interest," Mr. Crowe says.

Write to Robert McGough at bob.mcgough@wsj.com and Shawn Young at shawn.young@wsj.com