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To: DownSouth who wrote (5111)11/17/2000 12:49:03 PM
From: gingersreisse  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10934
 
Good article in red herring today on NTAP and storage. Well balanced, and generally positive.

redherring.com

GSR



To: DownSouth who wrote (5111)11/17/2000 1:00:21 PM
From: HDC  Respond to of 10934
 
DS, Thanks for the perspective. The analysts have said the current selling is overdone. I think margin selling and the election status are contributing the the selling. Fundamentals are what matter in the long run. Boy, does NTAP have fundamentals.

Thanks again,

Duncan



To: DownSouth who wrote (5111)11/17/2000 1:30:44 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
We all know that DW takes his queue from John Chambers

I noticed that JDSU, NTAP, and CSCO all gave very aggressive forward guidance. This seems rather out of keeping with the past, and I wonder if it isn't partially to stem a further selloff that seems to plague all cos. that hint at a slowdown. After all, it is rather unprecedented for cos. of this size to give triple digit guidance (JDSU NTAP) or 50%+ for CSCO. What happened to the good old days of lowballing guidance and rising expectations.



To: DownSouth who wrote (5111)11/17/2000 1:38:56 PM
From: kbtrans  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
DS, first let's get one thing clear. I feel NTAP
kicks EMC's butt undeniably when it comes to
price/performance.

Secondly, my point is simply that 100%+ annual
growth rate can be accurately described as
"atmospheric," while a P/E of 4, 5, 600 is
"astronomical." The two can coexist while the
momentum of the market drives the stock price,
but eventually the two must return to the same
plane.

Paul

I consider a compounding 100%+ annual growth with 60%+ gross margins to be at least "atmospheric" growth if not "astronomical". I also consider the fact that NTAP, EMC and the like are after a market that is already $16B (external storage market) and growing at 40%/year and together they only have about 25% of that huge market.



It is also worth noting that NTAP's prices are less than half of EMC's in terms of cost/MB, and yet NTAP's GM is higher--not to mention the fact that NTAP's system performance is far superior when comparing $=$ configs.

I am not concerned about NTAP's stock price today, nor am I concerned with "only" a 110% forecast growth for the next few quarters. I am pleased with the company's direction, products, marketplace, and management. I am pleased with the American economy and NTAP's presence internationally.

Sorry for the rant, but I am hearing some really exaggerated, out of context crap out there, and your statement is on the edge, imo.

Don't go away, though kbtrans. Your opinions, as those of so many (including GM) are valuable to us all.

Jerry



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To: DownSouth who wrote (5111)11/17/2000 2:29:53 PM
From: Chaz  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 10934
 
To DS and Group

I've only owned NTAP for a little over a year, so I'm far from being an expert. I think that we all should remain calm. It's clear that when exuberance exists in the market, stocks go up way too quickly, well beyond their fundamentals. The same can be said about when the market goes down too quickly, stocks get way oversold. I actually envy Greg M., since if I had more money, I'd also be hoping the stock would go down to a rock bottom level so I can pick it up cheap. Two points I think are worth mentioning.

1) Someone on the Fool thread had a great message about the growth of NTAP. He said if you add the deferred revenue (balance sheet) and the regular revenue (on the income statement) together, NTAP actually had as good a quarter in terms of YoY growth than last quarter (+122% vs +128%). Let's not forget that using deferred revenue is a great tool for management to level revenues between quarters. MSFT has mastered this accounting treatment.

2) The other point we should all remember is that storage continues to grow big time and that 6 months from now, we are all going to talk about this period in market history as one of the best buying opportunities of this young decade.

Good investing to all.

Chaz (Charles)

PS DS please keep up the great posts. If it weren't for you, I'm not sure if I would have been so fortunate as to invest a very large portion of my portfolio in NTAP. Even though I'm down huge, I really am not worried long term.