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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (35009)	11/18/2000 8:36:06 PM
From: b_spiral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Hello G&Ks, I have a question which I posed to Mike Buckley in a private email. Mike replied and suggested that I should ask the thread. I would appreciate any suggestions and comments from the thread leaders and newer posters. Baically I want to invest for a minimum of 5 years and go to the beach. Thanks to all - Gary The question I want to put together a Coles Notes (style), 5 year revenue estimate for a number of Gorillas, Kings and Princes. I want it really simple and conservative. All I really want is market cap and a guess at 5 year growth. For example: quote.fool.com. This gives a growth estimate of 52% which is too conservative. If I assume 260M$ sales and 52% in five years I get 2109M$ which is still good. But if growth was 100% for 5 years it would be 8320M$. Do you have any suggestions as to how to go about this? --------------- Mike's reply (edited) Gary, I hope you'll post your question as well as my answer publicly. The issue of future growth is always the big unknown. My way of dealing with it is to establish what I think is a reasonable minimum and maximum growth. I average the two and run the numbers using all three scenarios. That gives me a range of what fair value might be. Hope this helps! --Mike