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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (79423)	11/18/2000 5:04:47 PM
From: Umunhum	Respond to of 95453

<<Again; I hope there is some substantial upside to the NG plays; but not for the upside; but rather for shorting on the downside. - I actually think there is more risk piling into them here - and then not having any weather related spike occur; than there is in waiting to see if they do spike on some weather event & then shorting them for a leg down. >> How can you make such a statement? I believe it was posted a while back that the natural gas production increase from the major producers from Q2 to Q3 was only 0.4%. We seem to be on the treadmill that Matt Simmons has so eloquently explained. This minuscule production increase is even more astounding when considering that it happened with natural gas prices averaging greater than $5. Also remember that when we had a recession in 1998 oil demand continue to grow, just not as fast as they projected. Not to mention that there is no Iraq out there that is suddenly going to dump 2 million plus barrels onto the market. I highly doubt we are going to see a 1998 type of correction again. I am holding tight to my producers and believe they have a long way to go.