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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Wheless who wrote (39794)	11/18/2000 12:39:47 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Ed, >Was anyone around 10 years ago following tech. stocks< I was around but only held some IBM, my employer then, totally unaware the stock would tank big time 3 years later. finance.yahoo.com Gottfried

To: Ed Wheless who wrote (39794)	11/19/2000 1:23:28 PM
From: brunn	Respond to of 70976

While looking back through the charts I noticed a great similarity exactly 10 years ago with INTC as well as AMAT. In the fall of 1990 all indexes fell as we were entering the Gulf War as well as a recession (which was possibly related to higher oil prices.) Interesting comparison--AMAT bottomed on this date in November. Its P/E on forward earnings (1991) was about 10 when it bottomed at 0.5 (split adjusted.) AMAT's P/E has bottomed around 12--assuming forward EPS of 3.2 which is obviously subject to error. Of course, lower interest rates today justify higher P/E's or else companies like CSCO will need to fall to the 20's and Dell to the low teens and INTC to 20 (to return to 1990 valuations.) Also, AMAT recovered rather dramatically (much quicker than 1996 or 1998) although it took over a year to recover to the previous high. I would take 115 in January 2002.