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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: techreports who wrote (35012)11/18/2000 2:24:16 PM
From: saukriver  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
I guess i agree that Yahoo isn't a true gorilla.

What an understatement. Yahoo! has few (if any) requirements of a gorilla. No BTE, no proprietary open architecture, no real value chain, etc. At best, Yahoo customers have slight switching costs of having to sign up for a similar service.

, however, was just trying to get people's opinion on which stocks they consider gorillas and would dominate their market like a JDSU or QCOM. Ya i know JDSU isn't a gorilla, but it seems pretty certain they'll dominate optics for at lest [sic] the next 3 years.

QCOM is a gorilla. JDSU is not.

Is anyone out there familiar with HGSI? They have over 7,700 patents pending with around 350 granted. These patents are just as critical as QCOM's CDMA patents.

The genomics companies are basically service companies. They are selling into a narrow market of customers (pharmas), and at some point the drugcos. might take those services in-house. The genomics companies can continue to develop their databases on the human genome and sell the fact that their database is up-to-date (a la LEXIS-NEXIS). Not a gorilla game.

I think it overstates things beyond reason to say that the HGSI patents are as critical to the drug biz as QCOM's to CDMA. Many of QCOM's essential patents have been tested in the courts. I don't know whether an equally significant share of HGSI's have been battle-tested.

HGSI expects 80% of the patents pending to be approved.

I am also not sure that any court has squarely addressed whether the patents on the human genome are enforceable at all. That a patent might be issued does not mean that it will be enforceable. The PTO is going to punt that kind of hard issue to courts. Courts will then decide whether those patents misuse the patent laws, allowing someone a patent on such information is against public policy, and/or are so based so much on public domain information as to make them unenforceable.

Here is a link to an article called "The Case for Gene Patents." techreview.com My takeaway is that there must be some legal uncertainty whether these patents are enforceable, or why would anyone feel the need to make a case for them? I mean, you do not see Dr.s Jacobs, Viterbi or others running around and writing articles entitled "The Case for Wireless Telecomm Patents." It is settled that many QCOM key patents are enforceable; others are so newly issued that they have not yet been tested.

I encourage you to explore this genomics area, but it also is not a gorilla game. It seems like a database rental game.

saukriver



To: techreports who wrote (35012)11/18/2000 5:08:27 PM
From: Uncle Frank  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
>> Although i guess i'm breaking that rule by investing in GMST and RMBS, huh?

Not at all. The fact that thread is divided in opinion about the gorillaness of these two candidates in no way precludes them from being a valid selection for your own G&K universe. There is no absolute authority on this issue; some of us even question Geoff's pronouncements, and he wrote TFM. Heck, we haven't reached a consensus classification about Intel on this argumentative thread <lol>.

>> Over the past year i've developed my own theories and risk tolerances.

That's the perfect solution, and the filter for selecting your personal candidates.

>> i don't see that much of a difference between HGSI and the IPR version of QCOM.

You might want to look a little harder. Qcom has defended their patents successfully in court.

uf