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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AugustWest who wrote (60317)	11/18/2000 4:36:04 PM
From: Poet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

AW, Thanks so much for taking the time to type that out. Very interesting viewpoint.

To: AugustWest who wrote (60317)	11/18/2000 5:00:25 PM
From: Doppler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

AW- Thanks for the update and for taking the time to type it in. My take is that the Mellon folks are too optimistic with some of there assumptions. With respect to oil/energy for example. They fail to mention what a cold winter would do to the situation given the record low reserves. It is starting to look like the possibility exists for a colder than normal winter (especially in the NE) which could cause catastrophic effects with NG, HO, and gas. That would impact the economy in a way that would make Fed policy seem inconsequential (should it happen). As for earnings, they mention the deceleration of earnings but dismiss it as a problem. That is despite the fact that given the current PE ratio of the markets as a whole, investors have priced in increasing earnings for the foreseeable future. Later in the earnings paragraph the gloss over the rapidly increasing default rate on corporate and personal loans. Such weakness HAS to negatively impact corporate profits IMO. As for the election, statistics show that because of gridlock (which we certainly will have in great abudndance this year with the split nature of the house etc) that the first year of a presidential term averages only 3-5% return for stocks ( going from memory of the article I read) and that if you look at the 20th century alone the numbers are even more abysmal. JMO, but their outlook seems to rosy to me. butthinkcontrarianandinvestnow.com :-)

To: AugustWest who wrote (60317)	11/18/2000 7:05:46 PM
From: Peach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

August, thank you for taking the time to type the report. Message 14840697

To: AugustWest who wrote (60317)	11/18/2000 7:53:44 PM
From: jbIII	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

Feed back anyone? Yes, you need to buy a scanner! LOL

To: AugustWest who wrote (60317)	11/20/2000 6:13:38 AM
From: arno	Respond to of 63513

Auggie, Thanks! for the effort. 1)FED - can't raise and will have to ease before long. 2)Euro - European social programs hinder growth. They're toast until reform is enacted. 3)Earnings - What's that? <gg> Real companies have them, those that don't/won't will be gone. 4)Energy - Current volatility is a market event and unless we have record breaking cold our current supply mechanism will be OK. 5)Election - I don't know what will happen next, but I don't think resolution will cause much more than a spike. Market perceptions and realities are dependent upon the FED. Until AG cuts or eases the bias we'll have more downside. BWDIK? arno