Chaz,
Re: GPRS & EDGE
I am probably not the proper person to ask questions about GPRS or EDGE, since I am a Qualcomm PermaBull, and if I had my druthers both Cingular and AWS would be building out CDMA right now.
For the REAL skinny, you are better off inquiring on the Moderated Qualcomm thread or for the SUPER REAL skinny, on the "Coming of Range thread. Plenty of GPRS & EDGE theorists over there.
I'll take a stab at it anyway, in the spirit of devils advocacy and since this is the Nokia thread, and CDMA ain't exactly Nokia's bag yet.
There is, BTW, an interesting article by Brad Smith in Wireless Week this week called "Is EDGE Balancing On The Edge?":
wirelessweek.com
<< But as yet there is no EDGE in commercial use >>
No, and there won't be for a while. Is there really any 1xMC commercially in use (SKT)?
If there is, we ought to see some terrific numbers out of Korea this quarter, right.
Probably wont affect subscriber net adds though, huh, since they will be conversions, and SKT still has to cut back subs.
For sure there is no 1xMC in use that complies with IS-2000A published IMT-2000 standards. SKT is using the MSM5000.
When will the standards compliant MSM5105 ship and be placed in commercial use do you think?
Is it possible that Verizon and Sprint PCS are waiting for commercial quantities of MSM 5105, or at least early quantities for integration testing before they take delivery of 1xMC handsets?
Like most major carriers, Neither company has been prone in the past to implement nonstandard anything.
<< The joke about the TDMA-EDGE growth is that is 100% TDMA, 0% EDGE >>
Well lets just call the UWCC forward thinking. <g>
Heck, CDG, is forward thinking <vbg>
Hype is an American tradition.
The joke about CDMA that the UWCC guys remind me of, is that there is no IMT-2000 published standard for CDMA, that extends data rates above 144 kbps, and when there is that the 1xMC standard will be for 307 kbps as opposed to the 384 kbps requirement of IMT-2000, that the EDGE standard satisfies.
When I tell them that there is a new TIA standard for 1xEV at 2.4 Mbps they laugh and ask when it will be wrapped into a published ITU standard for IMT-2000.
Somebody said, that George Gilder said, that Qualcomm was getting better at playing the standards game. I suspect they are. How much better the question.
<< And there may or may not be a viable EDGE >>
Perhaps there won't be.
Some rumor mongering journalists are saying that, and a few of my favorite wireless analysts are conjecturing the same. Right now however, one of them (Tim Luke), and his company, ares on my s*** list for non-wireless related bull****. I may have to start following Ed Snyder. <g>
For the moment, the TDMA carriers are publicly stating that they are committed to TDMA-EDGE.. Referring to both AWS & Cingular, Brad smith says that "Both have publicly said they will have EDGE in at least part of their networks by the end of 2001 or early 2002".
In the meantime, Brad Smith reports that Lars Nilsson, strategic marketing manager for Ericsson, says the manufacturer has EDGE contracts with carriers in Canada, Mexico and Argentina and believes many European carriers are considering the technology.
Smith also states "some carriers, especially European GSM carriers, might be influenced by an Oct. 26 report by the Swedish consultancy Northstream. The report suggested that EDGE was a - neglected opportunity - that carriers should consider as a viable step to 3G."
<< As a practical matter, how does TDMA land compete re: data in the next 2 or 3 years against 1X and 1xEV? (Or for that matter how does GSM land - with GPRS?) >>
Well, for the moment AWS is competing rather nicely with CDPD data and some very sexy quad-mode phones. My neighbor to the left uses a WAP enabled Mitsubishi, and my neighbor to the right uses as a WAP enabled Ericsson. They are quite satisfied, and the Mitsubishi user laughs at the display of my Audiovox CDM9000 tri-mode.
Cingular could do the same thing with CDPD.
Right now carriers aren't losing a lot for lack of data services. Data take up is tiny in the US. This will change. For many users right now data is a big disappointment.
For the moment Cingular and AWS don't have to worry about data rates. There will be little or no 1xMC in the US next year.
The major GSM carriers (VoiceStream, PacBell (Cingular), BellSouth (Cingular) will all launch GPRS and WAP enabled wireless web next year.
They will probably use Blue Kite type data compression and optimization so they will be highly competitive from a "speed point of view. Don't look for real GPRS coverage in the US till maybe 2003 though.
<< Increasingly it looks as if the GSM world is planning on GPRS and then a pause. EDGE seems to be losing its edge in the GSM world. Or am I misreading the tea leaves >
EDGE has not had any edge in the GSM world, only in the TDMA world. We are getting some indications that may be changing.
<< Once again, the fun will be what happens after GPRS in GSM land >>
Its not fun for me. I can't see why it would be for you. I have every reason to believe that it will be successful and by mid 2004 or 2005 it will probably be the predominant air interface in the world, as projected by most research agencies. There is no CDMA component.
Qualcomm is a great technology company. But they had an opportunity on this one, that they lost for non technology reasons. CDMA coulda, shoulda, been the air interface upgrade path for GSM. 1xMC was too long in concept, too late to standard. Qualcomm fought the requisite roaming requirement from a hardware point of view, and didn't exert an effort in ETSI.
<< And how and in what way will Nokia prosper? >>
Although Nokia did not seem to be as excited about EDGE as Ericsson initially, it appears that they are committing to it, and are establishing an expanded AWS relationship as a result.
Brad Smith says (in re AWS):
"One of the potential EDGE vendors is Nokia, which has set up a lab near AWS’ headquarters to test the technology. It has another EDGE lab set up in conjunction with the Mexican TDMA carrier Telcel".
"Steve Ballard, head of marketing for Nokia, says EDGE hasn’t received a lot of publicity because all the attention has been focused on third-generation auctions. Once those are completed, carriers that didn't get 3G spectrum will likely turn to EDGE as an alternative high-speed technology, he says. Ballard thinks Nokia will start signing EDGE contracts with carriers during the first half of 2001 and there will be full deployment in some networks the following year. That could beat a 3G rollout by a couple of years".
You probably should read this recent article in Wireless Week called "Putting Wings On Data Delivery" that has a pretty objective look at GPRS, EDGE, and CDMA:
wirelessweek.com
Now can I go back to cheerleading for Qualcomm?
- Eric - |
