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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (758)	11/18/2000 11:12:55 PM
From: Joshua Corbin	Respond to of 74559

And if you want something downright joyful: "In Praise of Failure" mises.org

To: Tommaso who wrote (758)	11/18/2000 11:29:16 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

In 1954, the DOW was 27% lower than it had been 25 years earlier. In 1982, the DOW was 22% lower than it had been 16 years earlier. The DOW doubled in 53 years from 1928 to 1982, meaning its average capital gain for more than half-century was less than 2% per year. NAS History: 1971 100 1982 200 1990 500 1995 1000 1998 2000 2000 5000 Folks this is all you need to look at, hold on for the ride, bottom, talking heads. Over the past 17 months 150 Fed Tightings - only 6 in the US Oils shocks and Fed Tightings - when they happened the last 3 times together we had a recession. Only 3x in postwar history were energy costs have risen as much or more, and all 3 happened to occur - coincidence or not, during recessions. 9 of the past 12 recession occured within first 2 years of a new Presidency. One G7 nation is near recession and many economists calling a depression - Japan. Oil prices are effecting the economies of net oil importing nations like S. Korea, India and Thailand. Devaluation of currency could occur including China. The Fed will have not choice but to hold rates firm or even tighen further if US currency grows weaker, in order to maintain a strong dollar. Hey it sucks being a bear, but the reality is - game over for a little while or more. Most people, have forgotten what a sustained slowdown looks like or feels like - its been 10 years. There is way to much complancy out there - in addition there are way to many people praying for a rally to make up for lost gains from the glory days of 1999 and early 2000. Overall the warnings signs are everywere, and to even consider being in this market in the near term is as good as the state lottery or the craps table. West