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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Street Hawk who wrote (762)	11/19/2000 2:36:01 AM
From: Joshua Corbin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

when the Nasdaq would hit 6000 this year, not a matter of if it would do it The NAZ will hit 6000 eventually -- even if the much-ballyhooed hard landing slaps us in the face. Didn't anybody ever teach you to buy low and sell high?

To: Street Hawk who wrote (762)	11/19/2000 10:29:59 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

"Interesting to note how none of this was brought up at Nasdaq 5000." It depends on which anonymous persons that passive verb refers to. Anyone following the Ask Michael Burke thread on SI would have heard from plenty of us who were holding large amounts of puts on high-multiple stocks, or who were short indexes like XLK and QQQ. It's true that there now are beginning to be many more intimations of uneasiness in the press. Today's Sunday NY Times has several articles on the financial pages by Gretchen Morgenson suggesting that bond defaults are about to begin, and our local paper featured a story of a family that lost all their savings in a bad mortgage decision in Los Angeles. Even after the 40% NASDAQ drop, stocks are still on average more overvalued and debt is still far more threatening than any time ever in the past. The only way out is to devalue the dollar through inflation--not just against other currencies but against commodities. Having learned the value of money in the 1950s, I regularly divide any price by four to see if it seems reasonable to me (i.e. my first jobs paid about $1.50 an hour, so $6.00 minimum wage seems reasonable). Inflate the dollar so that it drops by half again and you wipe out a great deal of the real debt. I am not advocating this--but given what the government and banks have allowed to happen, it seems inevitable. The only other choice is mass unemployment as in the 1930s. Since interest rates would also go way up, some wealth can be preserved in money-market savings accounts or treasury bills. My own choice is to bet heavily on oil and gas, believing that demand for them will not drop as much as demand for other things. Precious metals I don't much believe in but have about 10% of our assets in anyway. Foreign government bonds, even some Swiss Franc travelers checks, a paid-off mortgage-free house, and a cheerfully pessimistic attitude complete the picture. Will buy bankrupt tech stocks hand over fist if/when they sell for pennies on the dollar eventually, though some will disappear permanently.